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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (12146)	9/23/2004 10:58:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in August, the Conference Board said Thursday. This is the third straight monthly decline, the longest string since early 2003. The fall was slightly larger than the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists, who had expected a 0.2 percent fall. The coincident index rose 0.2 percent, while the lagging index fell 0.1 percent.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (12146)	9/23/2004 11:05:33 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK 3 mths to August car output down 1.5 pct vs previous 3 months Thursday, September 23, 2004 9:00:29 AM LONDON (AFX) - UK car production fell 1.5 pct in the three months to August compared with the previous three months for a 4.3 pct year-on-year decline, official figures showed today. The office of National Statistics said production allocated for exports in the latest three months rose 7.9 pct when compared with the previous three months, leaving it 2.6 pct higher year-on-year. Car production for the domestic market fell 12.8 pct in the three months to August, leaving it 16.6 pct down on the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, total commercial vehicle production for the three months ending August was 1.2 pct down on the previous three months for an 8.8 pct year-on-year rise

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (12146)	9/23/2004 11:12:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mass layoffs bls.gov In August 2004, employers took 809 mass layoff actions, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 69,033. (See table 1.) Both the number of events and initial claims were lower than a year ago. It should be noted that August 2004 contained 4 weeks for possible mass layoffs, compared with 5 weeks in each August of the prior 3 years. (See the Tech- nical Note for an explanation of how the number of weeks for data collection can vary from month to month.) From January through August 2004, the total number of events, at 11,017, and of initial claims, at 1,118,574, were lower than in January-August 2003 (13,205 and 1,316,863, respectively). Industry Distribution The 10 industries reporting the highest number of mass-layoff initial claims accounted for 23,342 initial claims in August, 34 percent of the total (See table A.) Temporary help services, with 4,978 initial claims, and school and employee bus transportation, with 4,718 initial claims, together accounted for 14 percent of all initial claims in August. The manufacturing sector had 24 percent of all mass layoff events and 26 percent of all initial claims filed in August--the smallest shares for any August since 1995, when the monthly series began. A year ago, manufacturing reported 32 percent of events and 39 percent of initial claims. Within manu- facturing, the number of claimants was highest in transportation equipment (2,846, mainly automotive-related), followed by food processing (2,797) and fabricated metal products (2,031). (See table 2.) The administrative and waste services sector accounted for 15 percent of events and initial claims filed in August, with layoffs mainly in temporary help services. Temporary help services, at 4,978 initial claims, accounted for more than 7 percent of all mass layoff initial claims in August. Twelve percent of all layoff events and 13 percent of initial claims filed during the month were in retail trade, primarily in general merchandise stores. Construction accounted for 9 percent of events and 8 percent of initial claims during the month, mainly among specialty trade contractors. Transportation and warehousing accounted for 6 percent of events and 7 percent of initial claims, mostly in school and employee bus transportation. An additional 5 percent of events and 7 percent of initial claims were from the information sector, largely in motion picture and sound recording.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (12146)	9/23/2004 11:26:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Contrary Investor on mortgage spreads and FNM Message 20558460

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (12146)	9/23/2004 11:28:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Italy July retail sales down 0.3 pct yr-on-yr Thursday, September 23, 2004 8:06:19 AM ROME (AFX) - Retail sales fell 0.3 pct year-on-year in July, the statistics office ISTAT said ================= French Aug final CPI down 0.3 pct from July vs provisional 0.3 pct rise Thursday, September 23, 2004 7:04:41 AM PARIS (AFX) - The French final consumer prices index for August showed a 0.3 pct fall compared with provisional estimates giving a 0.3 pct increase, according to figures from the Insee statistics office. Economists polled by AFX News had been expecting a 0.2 pct rise. Compared with the same month last year CPI was up 2.4 pct, unchanged from provisional estimates. Underlying 'core' inflation, which excludes products with either regulated or highly-volatile prices, rose 0.4 pct in August, from July. Food and tobacco prices alone were down 1.2 pct month-on-month, unchanged from provisional data, manufactured goods prices rose 0.9 pct, also unchanged while services prices declined 0.1 pct month-on-month after provisional date showed no change. The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) calculated to allow comparison with other EU members was up 0.2 pct month-on-month, while increasing 2.5 pct year-on-year

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (12146)	9/23/2004 11:29:37 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bets on debt surge 77 percent this year - Wednesday, September 22, 2004 10:27:36 PM SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Credit derivatives are red hot. These bets on the creditworthiness of underlying debt instruments have grown more than 77 percent over the 12 months ending this June, to reach $5.44 trillion, according to an international report released Wednesday The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a New York based group representing traders of privately negotiated derivatives, announced its tally of non-exchange-traded derivatives at ISDA's regional member conference in London "The sharp growth in credit derivatives demonstrates the importance of these instruments as risk management tools," said Robert Pickel, chief executive of ISDA. These investments have become popular hedges in rising interest-rate environments and are generally used as a way of managing credit risk, which is defined as the likelihood of default on a debt. Banks have been improving their measurements of credit risk thanks in large part to the much-ballyhooed capital adequacy framework released this June by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. This in turn has ramped up demand for credit derivatives ISDA's survey said interest-rate swaps and options combined with cross-currency interest-rate contracts have risen more than 32 percent annually, to reach $164.49 trillion by the end of the second quarter of 2004. By contrast, outstandings in the equity derivatives tracked by ISDA, which include swaps, options and forwards, totaled $3.79 trillion. "While equity derivatives aren't growing as quickly, credit derivatives are because they're a much newer market," explained David Mengle, head of research at ISDA. "New products are still being engineered, new participants are still coming in, and people are finding new reasons for buying derivatives. But changes in interest rates also prompt people to hedge their exposure." He continued, "Ten years ago, credit derivatives were more rumors than anything else. You started seeing them around 1996 or 1997, but we didn't start collecting data on them until 2001." The earliest statistics on the credit derivatives market is a 1996 count of $40 billion by the British Bankers Association. The credit default swap has been the most actively traded type of credit derivative, and now accounts for 45 percent of the market, according to the Bank for International Settlements. fxstreet.com