Bush opens big lead in Wisconsin, but both sides question the figures
By David Callender
September 23, 2004 Capital Times - Madison Wisconson.
The Badger Poll shows President Bush, on the eve of his visits to Janesville and Racine on Friday, leading Democratic challenger John Kerry by 14 percentage points in Wisconsin.
Both campaigns were skeptical of the large gap, and the poll director said they might reflect a "bubble" of public resentment at Bush's treatment by CBS News.
The poll, sponsored by The Capital Times and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and conducted by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, shows Bush with 52 percent support among likely voters, Kerry with 38 percent, and independent Ralph Nader with 4 percent.
In a two-way race between just Bush and Kerry, the gap remains the same, with Bush garnering 54 percent to Kerry's 40 percent.
The poll surveyed 468 self-described likely voters between Sept. 16 and 21. It had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The poll sharply diverges from the results of other national polls of Wisconsin voters, which have shown Bush leading slightly or the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat.
For example, a poll by the American Research Group of 600 likely voters taken Sept. 12-15 shows Bush and Kerry with 46 percent each and Nader at 1 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Likewise, an MSNBC/Knight Ridder poll showed Bush with 46 percent to Kerry's 44 percent, with 1 percent for Nader and 9 percent undecided. That poll of 625 likely voters was taken Sept. 14-16.
The Badger Poll, however, was conducted almost a week later than those polls.
Badger Poll director G. Donald Ferree Jr. noted that the timing coincided with the revelation that CBS News had received fake documents calling into question Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard during the Vietnam War.
"It looked like he was being unfairly attacked," Ferree said, adding that the temporary boost for Bush "could be a bubble" that may burst, particularly after next week's first presidential debate.
Asked about the conduct of the campaign, 29 percent of those in the Badger Poll said they believed Kerry has been "unfairly attacking his opponent," compared to 23 percent who complained Bush had done so.
Both campaigns say they believe the race is closer than the Badger Poll indicates.
"While these results are encouraging, we still believe we have a lot of work to do," state Republican Party spokesman Chris Lato said Wednesday. "We believe it's going to be an extremely close race."
Kerry campaign spokesman George Twigg called Bush's lead in the poll "far beyond the range of where anybody believes this race is."
He added, "The balance of polling is showing a race that's a dead heat - either a tie or within the margin of error, and that's been consistent for most of the summer and fall."
Ferree said the Badger Poll indicates that when Bush is the issue in the campaign - as Kerry has sought to make him - the race is much closer.
Asked whether they would like to see Bush re-elected or replaced by a generic "someone else," 49 percent said they support Bush, while 46 percent picked someone else.
Significantly, 57 percent of independents said they wanted someone else, compared to 37 percent who favored Bush.
Yet on a variety of issues ranging from their personal characteristics to who better understands voters' needs, Bush either led or was tied with Kerry.
Bush outranked Kerry on:
• "Understanding the problems ordinary people face," 34 percent to 30 percent.
• "Being counted on to keep campaign promises," 42 percent to 23 percent.
• "Having a consistent record on the issues," 46 percent to 16 percent.
• "Protecting the United States from terrorism," 53 percent to 15 percent.
• "Making America respected in the world," 41 percent to 33 percent.
Kerry tied or outranked Bush on only two issues:
• "Improving the U.S. economy," where they each tied at 38 percent.
• "Protecting the environment," Kerry at 42 percent to Bush's 26 percent.
Bush stalwarts: Bush also appears to be benefiting from voters who are dedicated to him, while many of Kerry's supporters say they are casting an anti-Bush vote.
Two-thirds of Bush voters said they are voting for him because they support him, compared to 42 percent of Kerry's supporters.
By contrast, 52 percent of Kerry's supporters said they are voting against Bush, compared to 27 percent of Bush voters who say they are motivated by their opposition to Kerry.
Among some undecided voters, however, there appears to be equal amounts of antipathy toward both major candidates.
In an interview Wednesday, one of those polled, Matt Drissell, an art teacher in the Milwaukee public schools, said he's trying to decide between voting for Nader or Bush.
A self-described "pro-life environmentalist," Drissell said he believes neither Bush nor Kerry "are really changing anything," and both are in the pockets of special interests. He would vote for Nader "as a protest vote."
Drissell said he doesn't trust Bush's judgment, particularly when it comes to the war in Iraq.
"He's just so dogmatic about things," saying that he has no problem with Kerry's willingness to change course on issues. "It's more important to me to be right than consistent."
Drissell said Kerry could win his vote "if he would just say how he's pro-life or that he's not going to be adamant about it. Then I would lean toward him."
In another interview with a respondent, Rodney Schoenfeldt, a retired factory worker from Peshtigo, said he's trying to decide between Kerry and Nader.
"I'm against Bush, so it's really an opposition vote," he said, adding that he's leaning toward Kerry.
"I've got to see how Kerry does in the debates. I want to see how he'd improve the economy and get us out of Iraq."
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