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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (73031)	9/24/2004 3:22:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793839

Bush’s to Lose By David Hogberg Published 9/24/2004 12:07:02 AM American Spectator It’s official: The election is Bush’s to lose. Three weeks after the GOP Convention, the futures market at the Iowa Electronic Market has a Bush victory trading in the high 50s, and TradSports.com has it in the high 60s! With only two exceptions, opinion polls show a Bush lead over Kerry. The Rasmussen daily tracking poll has shown a Bush lead every day for the last two weeks save one when he was tied with Kerry. All winning campaigns have their share of luck and Bush's is no exception. Bush's level of support is largely unscathed despite the continued killings in Iraq and media publicity on the 1,000th U.S. soldier death. Thank the hurricane season and Dan "Fake, But Accurate" Rather for that. And what about John Edwards? He's had no noticeable effect on Kerry's campaign. Amazingly, his public profile is so muted his picture may soon appear on a milk carton. Finally, Bush is lucky to have John Kerry as his opponent. Kerry confirmed Bush's criticism of him as a "flip-flopper" when he said in August that he still would have voted to give the President the authority to take out Saddam Hussein and then a month later called Iraq "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time." Lately Kerry has been talking about Dick Cheney and Halliburton and Bush failures on international coalition-building. He's also called for U.S. troop withdrawals starting next summer. Is he taking his advice from the former Clinton operatives who are supposed to be rescuing his campaign or from the radicals at MoveOn.org? It's clear that Bush has made the fall campaign a debate about national security, his strong point, not domestic issues. So, can Bush lose? Sure, and here's how. Right now, it's all good news for Bush. Kerry apparently has given up on Missouri, once a must-win battleground state. Polls show Bush even in Kerry's backyard of Maryland and New Jersey. And there's talk that somebody in the Kerry Campaign may be caught up in Rathergate. The Bushies would need illegal substances to be feeling higher than they are right now. But that's the danger: Overconfidence. The Bush Campaign may let up if it thinks the election is locked up, especially on terrorism. That could give Kerry an opening to focus on the Iraq "quagmire" in the upcoming weeks. Add more bombings and deaths in Iraq -- a likely occurrence -- and the issue could shift to Kerry's advantage. Overconfidence may also cause Bush to be complacent about the debates. If he actually performs down to expectations -- an idea the Bush Campaign will try to promote -- and comes off as bumbling and unsure, while Kerry looks in command, Bush could suddenly find himself behind in the polls. Right now overconfidence is not a problem. The Bush Campaign just released a sharp new ad showing Kerry windsurfing -- he tacks left, then right, then left -- to reinforce the flip-flop theme. But who knows? Five weeks is a long time in politics, almost an eternity. David Hogberg, a Washington writer, hosts his own website, Hog Haven.

To: LindyBill who wrote (73031)	9/24/2004 7:52:40 AM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 793839

I doubt this guy knows anything about regular folks. He appears to be writing about regular folks who change jobs, relocate, try their own business. Of course his location is north andover and very expensive town north of Boston. Now the folks i know would call this description as unusual. I am one out a very few who moved from the city i grew up in. I can go back to the old neighborhoods, find the friends , locations, children of my friends, and now grandchildren all living in the same approximate area. None of these families have elected to relocate to various parts of the country. most have not had four jobs. All have been active in politics, public service. their highest priority is family, church, neighborhood and quality of life and of course democrat way of life. I find the same in a lot of major cities throughout the country, i moved 11 times. It is folks like us who are not the regular folks . BUT CONSIDER HOW MUCH REGULAR FOLKS KNOW. If you have not been famous or otherwise insulated, you have likely had half a dozen jobs by the age of 50. You have perhaps started, or tried to start, your own business. You have moved at least four times in adulthood, and bought and sold perhaps that many houses or condos, You have researched a number of areas of the country and lived in two or three (and not just Washington, New York, and Los Angeles). You have perhaps served a military hitch. You have had children in public schools or you've been home-schooling; you've raised funds for a church or a lodge or a Boy Scout troop. In some context or other, you have sold something door to door, published a newsletter, sold advertising, served on a committee, had a hand in hiring and firing.