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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12204)	9/24/2004 10:09:54 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, IMHO, the grains are down because China is using up inventory until they can buy a load at a very cheap price. Then they will start soaring again. Is that a function of inflation? deflation? smart shopping? We are well below the trendline price on corn right now. M

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12204)	9/24/2004 10:10:21 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

German preliminary Sept CPI down 0.3 pct vs Aug, up 1.8 pct yr-on-yr Friday, September 24, 2004 11:31:32 AM WIESBADEN, Germany (AFX) - Consumer prices in Germany fell 0.3 pct in September from August, and were 1.8 pct higher year-on-year, according to preliminary data from the Federal Statistics Office. Economists polled by AFX News had forecast prices to fall on average by 0.1 pct month-on-month, and rise 2.0 pct year-on-year. The results were based on figures from six federal states. The statistics office said the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) for Germany in September fell 0.3 pct from August, and rose 2.0 pct year-on- year. The final September figures are due in mid-October.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12204)	9/24/2004 10:21:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK housing boom is over as prices fall for third successive month - Hometrack Friday, September 24, 2004 9:32:50 AM LONDON (AFX) - Higher borrowing costs have taken their toll on the UK housing market as a closely-watched survey proclaimed the end to the boom The monthly national survey from Hometrack, a property website, found that average prices across the country fell by 0.3 pct in September, with the largest falls occurring in and around London "Rising interest rates and reducing consumer confidence in the future health of the housing market have taken their toll for the third month running," said John Wrigglesworth, Hometrack's housing economist "The housing boom is now well and truly over," he added Hometrack identified that an excess supply of properties in the market has increased sharply this month, with the number of buyers registered with estate agents falling by 5 pct, following the 4 pct declines in the previous two months In light of the three monthly declines, Hometrack has reduced its 2004 house price inflation forecast to 3 pct from 5 pct and is now predicting unchanged prices in 2005 Today's data may further cement expectations that the Bank of England may have done enough to choke off inflationary pressures stemming from rampant consumer demand, particularly in the housing market The market now reckons that interest rates are near their peak, with probably one more hike likely to be delivered this November That would take the central bank's key repo rate up to 5.00 pct fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12204)	9/24/2004 10:31:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK consumption ´less sensitive´ to house price falls than early 1990s - BoE Thursday, September 23, 2004 11:16:16 PM UK consumption 'less sensitive' to house price falls than early 1990s - BoE LONDON (AFX) - Household consumption in the UK would be less affected by a given fall in house prices than they would have been in the early 1990s, according to research published today from the Bank of England Matthew Hancock of the central bank's monetary assessment and strategy division and Rob Wood of the structural economic analysis division argue that consumption would be less affected than before, because households tend to borrow a lower proportion of the value of their property than in the past However, they conclude households may be "more sensitive" to changes in interest rates than in the past because of higher loan-to-income ratios "So unless households face an unexpected large negative shock -- for example, should unemployment or interest rates rise substantially more than they expect -- the risks from a coincidence of collateral (asset prices) and cash-flow effects (from changes in interest rates) are lower than in the past," they conclude in the BoE's quarterly bulletin A number of commentators have warned that UK households could face repayment difficulties in much the same way they did in the early 1990s, when a housing boom was swiftly followed by a market crash Though Hancock and Wood note that some characteristics of the current macro economy are similar to the late 1980s, such as the rapid increase in house price inflation and household debt, others are different, notably unemployment and nominal interest rates, which are low relative to the past 30 years fxstreet.com