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Politics : Proof that John Kerry is Unfit for Command -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (12621)	9/26/2004 10:36:11 AM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27181

Kerry's Stock Plummets New York Post, September 26, 2004 September 23, 2004 -- IN case Democrats didn't have enough jitters, John Kerry is kerplunking like a stone in the Iowa Political Futures Market — a novel but remarkably accurate predictor that yesterday put the odds of President Bush's re-election at more than 60 percent. The market late yesterday was predicting a Bush win with 52.7 percent of the popular vote to 47 percent for Kerry. In all, 64.8 percent of traders were betting on a Bush win — a dramatic switch from just a month ago when the odds were even on Bush and Kerry. "Bush has broken out substantially in the last few days. It could be a combination of Kerry's speech on Iraq, Bush's speech to the U.N. and even the CBS Dan Rather story imploding," said University of Iowa business dean Bob Forsythe, who oversees the market. "Our traders seem to be indicating that not only is Bush ahead, but he may win by a substantial margin," added Forsythe, an undecided voter. The market was set up in 1988, and in every election since then, its vote-share predictions have bested most polls and average within 1.37 percentage points of the popular vote. There's a separate winner-take-all market. Forsythe has more bad news for Democrats who think Kerry's angry anti-Iraq-war speech Monday marked a positive turning point: "Not at all. If anything, things have gotten worse for him." The market (go to www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem, then click "current market quotes") lets political junkies invest up to $500 in the same way they'd invest in commodities such as pork bellies. The theory behind the market is that people using real money will bet on what they truly think will happen, not what they hope will happen. In 2000 the market showed a very close race all the way and correctly predicted Al Gore would win the popular vote.