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Politics : Proof that John Kerry is Unfit for Command -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (12842)	9/26/2004 9:03:23 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27181

New Jersey, a Blue State, May Be Trying on Shades of Purple By DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI Published: September 26, 2004 TRENTON, Sept. 25 - To those who view this year's presidential race as a battle between politically polarized red and blue states, New Jersey has usually been viewed as so unquestionably Democratic that it could be colored somewhere between midnight and navy. But after trailing Mr. Kerry by 10 points in New Jersey as recently as late August, President Bush has sustained a bounce he received after the Republican convention, and three surveys released within the past 10 days suggest that the race for New Jersey's 15 electoral votes is now a statistical dead heat. Advertisement No one is certain whether Mr. Bush's surge represents a lasting shift or a momentary blip during a period when the presidential race has veered erratically between fierce personal attacks and withering exchanges about foreign policy. But the varying explanations for the tightening race offer a glimpse of the challenges facing Mr. Kerry as the campaign enters its final weeks. As Republican strategists predicted earlier this year, the message of their convention in Manhattan, which portrayed Mr. Bush as an unflinching avenger in the war on terror, seems to have resonated in New Jersey, which lost 700 people in the 9/11 attacks, and where the gaping absence on the New York skyline is a backdrop of daily life. The state's Democrats, meanwhile, have spent the past two months buried in an avalanche of bad news: sordid corruption investigations involving Gov. James E. McGreevey's aides and contributors and Mr. McGreevey's resignation amid a sex scandal. Beyond those local factors, Mr. Kerry's struggles in New Jersey seem to mirror national trends, in which he has lost ground among swing voters, independents and soft Democrats after the Republican National Convention. So while a majority of New Jerseyans disapprove of Mr. Bush's performance as president - and oppose his stands on issues from the war in Iraq and health care to the economy and gay marriage - Republicans succeeded in focusing the race on Mr. Bush's strongest issue: the war on terror. "Voters trust Bush to do a better job on terrorism, and they see terrorism as more important than the economy or health care, which are Kerry's issues," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday that found the candidates each polling 48 percent among likely voters, with 2 percent supporting Ralph Nader. The margin of sampling error for the survey, conducted from Sept. 16 to 19, was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Two earlier polls, by Survey USA and American Research Group, also showed a tightening race. Despite the movement in the polls, neither side is willing to declare New Jersey a true battleground. Strategists for Mr. Bush are watching the state closely, according to Reed Dickens, a spokesman for the Bush-Cheney national campaign. But other than a visit by the first lady, Laura Bush, the campaign has not allocated any additional resources for the state. Democrats say that during the past two weeks, Mr. Kerry's retooled campaign has begun laying out a more aggressive case against the administration's record on terrorism and Iraq. They also say they are confident that Mr. Kerry will rebound. With its strong unions, vibrant immigrant communities, tolerant views on social issues and concern for the environment, New Jersey has become exceedingly friendly terrain for Democrats during the past two decades. Democrats now control the governor's office, both houses of the State Legislature, both of its United States Senate seats and 7 of its 13 Congressional districts. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential race since 1988. Al Gore won the state in 2000 by 16 percentage points. "As the 9/11 message of the Republicans recedes, New Jersey voters will come back home to Democrats," said State Senator John Adler, co-chairman of Mr. Kerry's campaign in New Jersey. "Still, it's embarrassing that we are even having to have a conversation like this at this point in the race." nytimes.com