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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (12277)	9/27/2004 9:32:44 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

UK´s Brown signals concern about ´fragile´ global recovery Monday, September 27, 2004 6:39:39 AM UK's Brown signals concern about 'fragile' global recovery BRIGHTON, England (AFX) - Chancellor Gordon Brown will warn public sector unions not to jeopardise his spending plans with above-inflation pay claims as he expresses his concern about the "fragile" global economic recovery. In extracts released by aides from his keynote speech to the Labour Party conference here, Brown said he will reassure the G7 and IMF in meetings in Washington later this week that he will "take no risks with inflationary pay deals" The IMF will on Thursday release its half-yearly World Economic Outlook with a two-day official meeting scheduled to start in Washington on Saturday IMF head Rodrigo Rato told the El Pais newspaper that the world economy is in its best shape for five years, but added that the US budget deficit and sluggish European growth pose problems With a General Election expected next year, Brown will also warn against "irresponsible pre-election promises" "Facing a global recovery that is uneven and is still fragile, where oil prices have doubled and imbalances have worsened, I will tell the G7 and IMF when I travel to Washington later this week that we will take no risks with inflationary pay deals," he will say "No short-termism. No easy options, no irresponsible pre-election promises." The chancellor is also expected to say that "tough long term fiscal and monetary decisions for Britain" are necessary "to entrench and retain the trust of the people on the economy and pay for much needed reforms and investment in public services" "Let me say honestly to the party and the country that in meeting the long term challenges ahead we must and will take no risks with the long term policies for stability and prudence I have and will set out." Brown is on a collision course with the public sector unions over his plans to relocate thousands of civil servants away from the South East and make another 100,000 redundant to save money fxstreet.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (12277)	9/27/2004 9:39:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Market to OPEC - We are calling your bluff Mish ============================================================ OPEC says can raise output, price rise due to ´non-fundamental´ factors UPDATE Monday, September 27, 2004 7:12:19 AM OPEC says can raise output, price rise due to 'non-fundamental' factors UPDATE (Adds comment that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have spare capacity) JAKARTA (AFX) - The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is capable of increasing production further, though the recent rise in oil price has has not been caused by any supply shortfall, OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said "We can still add supply," Yusgiantoro told reporters "We still have a spare capacity of 1.5 mln barrels per day until the end of the year," he said, adding that OPEC members will meet again in Cairo in December to discuss the oil price issue. He blamed the renewed rise in oil prices to the impact on sentiment of the recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, but said the "real supply condition is now adequate." He said world oil supplies are more than enough to meet demand and that the current high prices are based on "non-fundamental" factors. Yusgiantoro told reporters later after a meeting with President Megawati Sukarnputri that OPEC's spare capacity of 1.5 mln barrels comes from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait "We want to create a psychological impact... that the additional production will give assurance to the world oil market that production is sufficient even though the current situation is not a matter of supply and demand," he said His comments came after crude for November delivery at the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a new closing high of 48.88 usd per barrel last Friday, surpassing the previous high of 48.70 usd reached on Aug 19 Yusgiantoro has earlier estimated oil prices to fall during the rest of the year, citing a global oversupply of 1.5 mln barrels of oil per day (bpd) In its previous meeting in Vienna this month, OPEC agreed to raise its output quota by 1 mln bpd to 27 mln bpd. But Yusgiantoro said the decision had little impact on the market OPEC members, including Iraq, have already been producing 4 mln bpd above their previous quota of 26 mln bpd before the Vienna meeting

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (12277)	9/27/2004 9:46:58 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK´s Brown says govt spending plans remain prudent, spending growth to slow Monday, September 27, 2004 8:01:54 AM UK's Brown says govt spending plans remain prudent, spending growth to slow LONDON (AFX) - Chancellor Gordon Brown reiterated today that the government's spending plans remain prudent and that spending growth will slow over coming years Speaking in an interview on BBC's radio 4, Brown said by 2008/9 growth in government spending will fall below the rate of growth in the wider economy Brown refused to say whether he will be forced to hike taxes in coming years He added that the government has "delivered all its promises" on not raising taxes Asked to comment on upcoming plans, Brown said "the next election manifesto will be set out at the appropriate time" He defended the rise in national insurance payments made in the previous budget, saying that the increase was necessary to shore up the National Health Service, which had been suffering from years of under-investment ============================================================== UK to hike taxes? Mish

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (12277)	9/27/2004 9:51:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Aug mortgage lending, approvals weaken but consumer credit grows - BBA Monday, September 27, 2004 8:50:44 AM LONDON (AFX) - Mortgage lending by major UK banks rose 4.4 bln stg in August, the weakest growth since June 2002, but consumer credit continued to climb, according to figures released by the British Bankers Association The August figure for mortgage lending is well short of the 5.1 bln stg rise in mortgage lending in July and the average of 5.56 bln stg for the previous six months Gross mortgage lending in August totalled 16.61 bln stg, 8.1 pct lower than July's total and compared with a total of 16.074 in August 2003 Loans approved for house purchases fell 9.5 pct in August from July and were down 21.6 pct from August 2003. Total loan approvals meanwhile were down 4.1 pct on July and 15.1 pct weaker than in August last year Loans for house purchases also represented a lower proportion of all loan approvals in August, falling to 32 pct from 34 pct in July The average approval for house purchases fell slightly to 112,100 stg from 112,900 the previous month The weakness suggests that the series of rate hikes from the Bank of England have started to have their desired effect. The central bank raised interest rates five times since November and is widely expected to do so again in November to take the benchmark repo rate to 5.00 pct Growth in net consumer credit was stronger than in July, however, rising by a seasonally adjusted 1.2 bln stg, the largest increase since March Credit card borrowing grew by 0.6 bln stg from July to 8.074 bln, while demand for personal loans and overdrafts also rose by 0.6 bln to 3.435 bln stg, both above the average over the previous six months "The slowing down of net mortgage lending in August looks set to continue in the next couple of months. A further weakening in the number of loans approved (particularly for house purchase and equity withdrawal) in August indicates that households' appetite for secured borrowing is moderating," said David Dooks, BBA director of statistics. "However, consumer credit growth in August was stronger than in July, with card borrowing in line with relatively robust retail sales," he said fxstreet.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (12277)	9/27/2004 9:56:27 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China central bank holds quarterly meeting, vows to maintain yuan stability Monday, September 27, 2004 11:54:59 AM BEIJING (AFX) - The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, held its regular quarterly meeting recently, during which it vowed to continue to maintain the Chinese yuan's stability, according to a statement on the bank's website In the statement, the central bank said it will maintain the basic stability of the yuan's exchange rate around a rational and balanced level It did not mention anything about an interest rate decision, but only said it will use flexibly various monetary tools to adjust money supply and improve loans structure The financial markets have been expecting the central bank to hike the interest rates between 25-50 basis points since the first half as the current high inflation rate has rendered interest rates negative The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.3 pct from a year earlier in August, the same year-on-year growth rate recorded in July The one year bench-mark deposit rate set by the PBOC stands at 1.98 pct, while one year benchmark lending rate is 5.31 pct The PBoC also said the current monetary policy and credit measures are effective Since the second half of last year, the central bank issued a series of credit tightening measures, including raising the required deposit reserves ratio and imposing tighter controls over housing and auto loans to cool down overheating sectors The central bank meeting was chaired by the PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan, with the attendance of a newly appointed financial expert, Yu Yongding, a scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) who has replaced Li Yang, another CASS scholar fxstreet.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (12277)	9/27/2004 10:24:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Oil hits record New record reached with $50 a barrel in sight as fighting in Nigeria raises new inventory concern. September 27, 2004: 8:46 AM EDT By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer money.cnn.com NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oil futures hit a new record Monday morning and appeared ready to cross the $50 a barrel mark, as concerns about inventory levels were compounded by the latest unrest in Nigeria. U.S. crude futures rose 57 cents to $49.45 a barrel in electronic trading early Monday, according to Reuters. That put it 5 cents above the $49.40 intraday record set last month. Brent oil futures set a record, rising to $46 a barrel before pulling back to $45.80, up 47 cents on the session. "If we don't hit it ($50) today, we're going to hit it before Wednesday and there's a good chance we'll do it today," said oil analyst Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover. "Basically the supply and demand is still very bullish here. We just don't have any cushion in terms of supply for prices to move anywhere other than higher."............