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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12305)9/27/2004 12:50:34 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Forex - Yen sharply lower as oil reaches record highs; euro, Swiss Franc up
Monday, September 27, 2004 4:25:12 PM

LONDON (AFX) - The yen remained at six-week lows against the dollar as oil prices broke record highs, sparking fears over the impact on Japan's economic recovery

Brent crude futures rose above 46 usd during trading today, while US futures edged ever closer to the 50 usd mark, both reaching record highs on fears of supply disruption after trouble in Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia

Among the major currencies, the yen is particularly sensitive to higher oil prices due to the fact that Japan does not produce any oil of its own

"Oil prices have caused the dollar/yen rate to move into levels not seen for several weeks," said Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Bear Stearns

Against sterling and the euro, however, the dollar has continued to move "within well-defined ranges", he said


High oil prices and the resultant fall in US equity markets also caused the euro and the Swiss Franc to rise against the dollar as investors switched to safe haven currencies, analysts said

Other than oil-related movements, however, the market remains very quiet, Barrow said

There is little on the economic calendar until Friday, with the release of the Japanese Tankan quarterly business sentiment survey. Many feel the yen could fall ahead of this, with some in the market expecting negative figures

Friday will also see the release of the US nationwide ISM survey for August, though the market is likely to remain quiet until the release of US non-farm payrolls data give some hint as to the future direction of interest rates. In the UK, sterling slipped against the euro in the wake of further evidence that the UK housing market boom is coming to an end, suggesting that UK interest rates are close to their peak

Data released this morning from the British Bankers Association showed both mortgage lending and mortgage approvals slowed in August, although consumer credit remains strong



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12305)9/27/2004 1:12:37 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Tampa Electric has 228,000 customers without power (TE) By August Cole
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Tampa Electric, a TECO Energy (TE) unit, said Monday that it has 228,000 customers in Florida that still lack power after Hurricane Jeanne hit the area. Damage to the company's infrastructure was "extensive" in eastern areas, according to a statement, with the company's transmission, distribution circuits and substations damaged worse than when Hurricane Charley and Hurricane Frances ravaged the region.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12305)9/27/2004 1:30:38 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Lumber prices falling like a rock
Oddly enough, lumber just went from extreme backwardization to slight forwardization. The sept contract was $120 higher than this just a couple weeks ago.
futuresource.com



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12305)9/27/2004 1:36:58 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
San Diego Headed Towards Bankruptcy
SAN DIEGO, California (AP) -- For 16 months, the whistle blower was ignored.

Diann Shipione, a trustee of San Diego's pension plan, sent letters to the mayor, wrote opinion pieces in the newspapers and spoke to the City Council, warning that the fund was a ticking time bomb and that the city was the "municipal Enron."

But the mind-numbing accounting complexities that the 52-year-old stockbroker described made it easy to dismiss her. And a top city official assured the City Council that she "omitted, slanted and misrepresented the facts."

When people finally started listening -- and it took a distinguished, outside lawyer for that to happen -- San Diego became engulfed in a scandal that now threatens to push the nation's seventh-most populous city into bankruptcy.

The Securities and Exchange and Commission and the Justice Department are investigating whether the city hid bad news about its pension plan. The city manager and auditor have resigned. The mayor is spending the final weeks of his re-election campaign trying to assure the public of the city's stability.

"America's Finest City" is in a fine mess. Its unfunded pension liability -- the gap between the value of its pension assets and its obligation to retirees -- stood at $1.17 billion at the end of January. It also faces a shortfall of $545 million for retiree medical benefits.

This seaside city of 1.3 million people -- long hailed as a model of fiscal probity -- would need to double its pension contribution next year to $259 million, or about one-tenth of its annual budget, just to avoid falling further behind, said April Boling, who heads Mayor Dick Murphy's Pension Reform Committee. That is more than three times what the city spends on parks and seven times what it gives libraries.

Boling, who is also Murphy's campaign treasurer, said the city will need to borrow $600 million on the bond market over three years and raise the retirement age from 55 to 62, among other things.

"If the city doesn't follow our recommendations, we will be headed toward bankruptcy," Boling said. "That is a fact."

On Wall Street, Standard & Poor's took the rare step of suspending its ratings on the city's debt Monday.


How did San Diego get into this mess?

A blistering report last week describes the city's long history of promising more than it could deliver.

The report, prepared by a law firm hired by the city, portrays a dysfunctional City Hall: a city manager -- effectively San Diego's chief executive officer -- who didn't bother to read financial disclosures and wasn't on speaking terms with his finance deputy, and a "check-the-box mentality" when it came to preparing financial disclosures.

The problem began in 1980, when the city began using above-average returns on its pension investments to give annual bonus checks to retirees, whose buying power had been battered by double-digit inflation. Typically, investment gains are set aside to cushion against downturns in the market.

In 1996, when the city was grappling with expenses imposed by the state and the costs of hosting the Republican National Convention, it cut its contributions to the pension fund and, at the same time, promised enhanced retirement benefits.

In 2002, it cut pension contributions and improved benefits again, in part because of a class-action settlement with retirees.

To make matters worse, the stock-market bubble popped, straining pension funds across the country. In an October 2001 e-mail to a colleague, Terri Webster, assistant city auditor, Shipione summed up the impact in her subject line: "EEEK."

The mayor, a former judge elected four years ago, said now he regrets the 2002 vote but notes the problem began long before him. He is being pounded by his opponent, San Diego County Supervisor Ron Roberts, for a "steady drumbeat of denial."

Shipione, a lone wolf on the pension board who was appointed by the previous mayor, had been crying foul since May 2002. But people did not take her seriously until one night last September. Paul Webber, an outside attorney who was handling a sewer bond sale for San Diego, came across a Shipione letter to City Hall and grew alarmed.

Webber, a highly regarded 70-year-old partner at a law firm in Los Angeles, was not so easy to brush aside. But people at City Hall tried.

When Webber insisted the city detail its billion-dollar problem and spell out future risks, City Treasurer Mary Vattimo scoffed, saying in an e-mail to a colleague that his demand "is OVERKILL." His relations with city officials quickly heated to "a boiling point," according to the law firm report, and he received angry e-mails from city employees, one of them accusing him of making "much ado about nothing."

Nevertheless, his hard-nosed questions would blow the scandal wide open and lead to resignations at City Hall in February and March.

Webber declined to comment. As for Shipione, she is not taking any bows for her prescient -- and long-ignored -- warnings.

"This is such an enormous problem," she said. "I don't even want to get into the I-told-you-so's and pointing fingers. I'd like to keep the focus on what we can do."

cnn.com



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12305)9/27/2004 2:09:15 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
The U.S. Election and the International System
investorsinsight.com

KT, what do you make of this?
Agree with any of it?

Mish