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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (12309)9/27/2004 1:55:15 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
our mortgage research team estimating that a move to 3.8% would leave 70% of the mortgage market fully refinanceable (see the September 17 edition of MBS Perspectives entitled, Cliffhanger)

I do not buy that number.
Especially if fees and credit restrictions happen because of FNM.

Finally, if housing prices drop, I will say they MIGHT be able to refi, but not pull anything out.

The massive stimulus of cash out refis is over IMO, regardless of whetehr or not refis themselves pick up.

Mish



To: russwinter who wrote (12309)9/27/2004 2:21:57 PM
From: NOW  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
RUSS:
You think this is being engineered: a sharp move lower to stim refis again? to my mind, it is their only chance to keep the bubble going


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