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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35356)	9/27/2004 9:29:43 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

Near term who knows, but I think RDC's and ESV's will be doing quite well over the next two years.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35356)	10/14/2004 5:19:02 PM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

In a research note, Prabhas Panigrahi, managing director of energy research at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum, said Rowan's results were a harbinger of good things to come from its peers, including Ensco International (ESV: news, chart, profile), GlobalSantaFe (GSF: news, chart, profile), Transocean (RIG: news, chart, profile) and Noble Corp. (NE: news, chart, profile). Noting that Rowan's third-quarter utilization in the Gulf of Mexico stood at 97 percent vs. 88 percent in the second quarter of 2004, Panigrahi said: "This is consistent with our hypothesis that supply/demand balance in the critical Gulf of Mexico for jack-ups has been tightening, implying prospects for strong price (and consequently, earnings) improvement." marketwatch.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35356)	10/21/2004 7:49:41 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

Paul, FWIW, here's what Goldman analyst Terry Darling had to say about Ensco and the jackup market a couple of days ago. Analyst Comment October 19, 2004 ENSCO (IL/A): 3Q2004 EPS Above Expectations - Raising Fair Value to $40 ESV 3Q2004 EPS of $0.17 was above our estimate of $0.13 + consensus of $0.15 due to higher jackup drilling rig utilization + day rates and lower depreciation. Day rates were 11% above our estimates w/ strength in all regions + utilization was higher in the US Gulf + N. Sea and lower in Asia- Pacific. We are raising our 2004 EPS estimate to $0.65 from $0.59, but lowering our 2005 EPS estimate to $1.38 from $1.50 - still above consensus of $1.27 - as the ramp up in N. Sea + Middle East jackup rates appears likely to proceed somewhat slower than previously expected due to seasonal factors in the N. Sea + supply absorption in the Middle East. We are implementing a 2006 EPS estimate of $1.75 and raising our fair value estimate to $40 (11.5x 2006 EV/ EBITDA) from $36 previously. We maintain our IL/A rating and continue to prefer the deepwater drillers DO (OP/A) and RIG (OP/A) as day rate momentum is stronger in deepwater + newbuild economics are closer to trough. JACKUP DRILLING RIG MARKETS CONTINUE STEADY MARCH UPWARDS. Jackup drilling rig markets globally are at or near 100% utilization and day rates continue to march steadily higher. In the US Gulf, leading-edge rates have moved into the mid-$40's for 250-300' capable rigs, the mid- $50,000's for 350' units and $60,000+ for ultra-premium rigs. In the North Sea, utilization is also near 100% with rates in the $50-60,000 range for standard rigs and $80-110,000 for premium units. ESV indicated it sees a seasonal plateau through 1Q2004 in the region + upward momentum resuming thereafter. W. Africa continues to recover from budget issues in Nigeria w/ rates in the mid-$40,000's to mid-$50,000's. Rates in the Middle East are in the low to mid-$50,000's and ESV sees rates at a plateau near-term as new supply in that region is being absorbed. Incremental demand of 8 jackups in the region in 2H2005 suggests a re-acceleration is likely in 2H2005. In Asia- Pacific, ESV sees a shortage of jackups materializing by mid-2005 and rates are now in the low-$60,000's. VALUATION. On our new estimates, ESV is trading at 10.8x and 9x on an EV/ EBITDA basis versus an average of 12x during the last two upcycles.