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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (12431)	9/28/2004 7:37:46 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 116555

There is enough geopolitical uncertainty from Iraq to Nigeria to keep the oil markets nervous. The US oil industry is still recovering from the damage done by hurricane Ivan, which not only knocked out some production in the Gulf of Mexico, but also kept tankers from unloading imports in New Orleans and Galveston. This has resulted in a sharp drop in US inventories to their lowest level in 30 years. ............................................................ In the past, high oil prices have preceded recessions. For example, in 1979, oil peaked at about $75 in today's dollars and that lead to a recession in 1980. Economist Bob Brusca of FAO Economics in New York says the high prices may prompt the Federal Reserve and other central banks to reconsider their tighter monetary policies. "If all the central banks stay on the side of tightness, it makes a slump more likely," he predicts. However, David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, thinks the high energy prices will take about a full percentage point off the nation's gross domestic product next year. And, he says, "Christmas is going to be affected. We can only hope for global warming." csmonitor.com NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices reached a record $50 a barrel on Monday as Nigeria emerged as the latest focus for worries about supply in an already tight worldwide energy market. ............................................................ The jump to the psychologically important $50 level came after news that a rebel group in the oil-rich Nigeria delta has launched an "all-out war on the Nigerian state" from October 1 and advised all oil companies to shut production by then. The Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force, which is demanding that the government negotiate self-determination by the Ijaw people who form a majority in the delta, also advised all foreigners to leave the area, which pumps all of Nigeria's 2.3 million barrels per day production. Growing concerns over militancy in Nigeria, OPEC's fifth-largest producer, are compounding worries about supply security in Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. ................................................................ Nigeria already has been forced to cut back output from surge capacity to prevent long-term damage to its aging facilities -- the first sign that efforts by OPEC countries to quell prices by squeezing out extra output may not be sustainable. Presidential Adviser on Petroleum Edmund Daukoru told Reuters that production was reduced 10 percent to base capacity of 2.25 million bpd in August. Nigeria had been pumping at surge capacity of up to 2.55 million bpd. Uncertainty over supplies from YUKOS, Russia's top exporter, also is supporting prices. YUKOS last week trimmed deliveries to China. In Saudi Arabia, clashes between security forces and suspected al Qaeda followers served as a reminder of the threat to stability in the world's biggest producer. In Iraq, insurgents fired mortar bombs at the oil ministry building Saturday, causing minor damage but no injuries. But Iraqi oil exports, temporarily at least, are as high as they have been since last year's U.S.-led invasion. Iraqi pipelines have been the target of frequent sabotage attacks. But Monday deliveries resumed through the main northern line to Turkey after repairs from a bomb attack Sept 2. Southern exports were near full capacity. Extra crude from OPEC, now pumping at a 25-year high, has failed to make any impact. The group produced 30.5 million bpd in September, the highest since 1979, tanker-tracking consultancy Petrologistics said Monday. reuters.com The Perfect Storm. We're not the only victims. Korea's oil imports exceed chip exports in value SEOUL - The value of oil imports to South Korea, the fourth-largest oil buyer in the world, surpassed exports of semiconductors, the flagship export item of the country, resulting from a jump in international oil prices this year, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Monday. Oil imports during the January-August period amounted to US$17.97 billion, up 20.7% from a year earlier. This exceeded overseas shipments of semiconductors worth $17.34 billion during the same period. atimes.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (12431)	9/29/2004 9:37:03 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 116555

Gas was certainly rising long before the war with Iraq. You may remember back on the old Ask Michael Burke thread how I was recommending energy when oil was $14 and so many (not the majority, but a lot) of posters told me we'd see it under $10. Edwards is certainly right that our aggression in the Middle East has caused some spikes. But the relatively new and insatiable demand of China combined with the US's refusal to take even one little step toward conservation are the real demand criteria pushing the price.

To: mishedlo who wrote (12431)	9/29/2004 10:26:21 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

more BS I have a complete different take on this - buying peace in many world quarters. It solves a lot of potential economic and political problems in Russia, Indonesia and the ME As to Edwards he just proved that he is an clueless trial attorney who does not deserve even to have a seat in the US Senate. … and Schumer should mind his business and take care of us ordinary New Yorkers and not only WS fat cats. It is very sad that the Democratic Party did not came up with some true leaders