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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (12446)	9/29/2004 8:30:04 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Sept retail sales slumps to lowest level in 18 months - CBI UPDATE Wednesday, September 29, 2004 10:46:52 AM (Updates with more details) LONDON (AFX) - UK retail sales in September slumped to its lowest in 18 months as the Bank of England's series of rate hikes, higher energy prices and concerns over the health of the property market took their toll, a key survey of the sector found. According to the Confederation of British Industry's latest distributive trades survey, high street retailers reported the first drop in sales for 18 months. Thirty-eight pct of retailers reported a fall in sales compared with a year ago while 29 pct reported a rise. The balance of minus 9 pct is the first negative balance since March 2003, and compares with a plus 2 pct reading in the previous survey and the recent peak of plus 51 pct in May 2004. Looking at the survey data over the past three months, the underlying trend is one of sluggish sales growth, CBI said. Retailers were also pessimistic about future prospects. Looking ahead to October, only 26 pct said they expect sales to be up compared with a year ago while 30 pct predict a drop. The balance of minus 4 pct is the first negative reading since March 1995. Sales of big ticket items took a major hit reflecting the higher cost of borrowing. Respondents reported the fastest year-on-year fall in sales of durable household goods such as televisions and fridges since June 1992, while hardware and DIY sales also dropped. However, furniture and carpets sales fared better although at a much slower pace than in the April-August period. Retailers now regard their sales as below normal for the time of year, having been buoyant in the first six months of 2004. Sales are expected to remain below normal in October. Commenting on the data, CBI chief economic adviser Ian McCafferty said a slowdown is now very much entrenched. "While some of last month's slow sales growth could be pinned on inclement August weather, these results suggest that a more meaningful slowdown is now taking place," he said He called on the central bank to stop hiking interest rate further "The Bank of England has been successful in slowing the growth of consumer spending. It must now be careful not to overdo things. Interest rate increases should be put firmly on hold for the time being," he added. Despite the difficulties faced by the retail sector, wholesalers enjoyed a good month. Fifty-six pct said the volume of sales had increased over the past year while only 12 pct said they had fallen. The net balance of plus 44 pct follows a plus 8 pct reading in August. Motor traders also had a good month, with a net balance of plus 7 pct saying sales were up from minus 35 pct in August.

To: Tommaso who wrote (12446)	9/29/2004 8:43:08 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

OPEC says can raise output; may take ´whatever action´ necessary - Wednesday, September 29, 2004 10:36:24 AM afxpress.com OPEC says can raise output; may take 'whatever action' necessary - UPDATE (Updating with more comments from OPEC president Yusgiantoro, background) JAKARTA (AFX) - The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it can increase oil production by 1.5-2.0 mln barrels per day (bpd) and pledged to take "whatever action" is necessary to protect the interest of the global economy "We will continue to carefully monitor the market situation and take whatever action is deemed necessary in the interest of the world economy," OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said in a statement "OPEC is capable of bringing a further 1.5-2.0 mln barrels per day of production to the market if required," he said He said Iraq has been able to produce 2.5 mln bpd of oil in spite of constant security threats against its production and distribution facilities Yesterday, crude for November delivery climbed to a high of 50.47 usd on the New York Mercantile Exchange before closing up 26 cents at 49.90 Analysts said the oil price hike followed supply disruptions in the wake of the hurricane attacks in the Gulf of Mexico and the US Yusgiantoro said unrest in oil producing Nigeria, where rebels threatened to attack oil installations, and the legal problems at Russia's oil giant Yukos contributed to higher oil prices "This tension has understandably caused considerable speculation in oil futures trading, with a high level of uncertainties instilling what has been referred to as a fear factor into the market place," he said He said OPEC ministers will keep in close consultation with one another to calm the market OPEC will continue to address problems associated with supply and demand, although market fundamentals are not behind the current rise in oil prices, he added