Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (12457)	9/29/2004 10:13:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Cohesion funds First I have heard about that ======================================================== EU says will study Greek budget before deciding whether to block financial aid Wednesday, September 29, 2004 11:14:45 AM afxpress.com BRUSSELS (AFX) - The European Commission said it will study Greece's budget for 2005, due out today, before deciding whether to block the country's cohesion funds, following sharp revisions to its deficit figures Spokesman Gerassimos Thomas said that according to press reports the Greek government intended to bring the deficit below the stability and growth pact limit of 3 pct of GDP in 2005 "The commission will have to evaluate this budget and come back with an assessment in November," spokesman Gerassimos Thomas said However, past experience showed that "once there is action by a country to correct an excessive deficit there is no discussion over cohesion funds" Cohesion funds are paid to poor EU countries to help them to catch up with wealthier member states

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (12457)	9/29/2004 10:18:21 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Pricey home, dicey mortgage csmonitor.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (12457)	9/29/2004 10:21:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

EU maintains 2004 GDP growth forecast, ´more prudent´ on 2005 UPDATE Wednesday, September 29, 2004 11:22:28 AM afxpress.com EU maintains 2004 GDP growth forecast, 'more prudent' on 2005 UPDATE (Updates with more comments) BRUSSELS (AFX) - The European Commission said it maintains its GDP growth forecast for 2004, but is "more prudent" regarding 2005 Spokesman Gerassimos Thomas said the commission has revised its 2004 forecast upwards to "something round about the 2 pct mark" from 1.7 pct, and "that holds" still despite the surge in oil prices "A lot of people ask whether the upward review for 2004 is going to mean an upward review in the growth figure for 2005, and here we have to be a little more prudent," Thomas said "We've got to see which way oil goes," he said He said the commission is "not reviewing down, but is not reviewing up yet" its forecast of 2.3 pct for 2005 GDP growth

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (12457)	9/29/2004 3:48:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Saudi extra barrels wrong kind of crude Most refiners can’t use sour, high-sulfur blend LONDON - The world’s oil refiners are unimpressed by Saudi Arabia’s boost to production capacity that would only swell supplies of sour, high-sulfur crude while they hanker for sweet oil. U.S. oil prices still hovered near $50 on Wednesday, testimony to the indifference to Riyadh’s pledge to hoist official production capacity by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 11 million bpd. “Most refiners couldn’t take more sour if they tried,” said one refiner, who asked not to be named. “We have a glut of sour crude and a short supply squeeze on low-sulfur crude oil and products, so extra Saudi makes no difference whatsoever,” a physical oil trader said. Riyadh’s new increment, together with capacity expansions in Kuwait and Iran will add some 900,000 bpd of new sour crude capacity by year’s end. But the kingdom has made clear it will only tap its extra reserves if warranted by customer demand. Saudi Aramco’s marketing plan for this month and next calls for production of 9.5 million bpd. New Saudi output would come courtesy of intensified drilling in the kingdom’s oilfields, primarily new expansion projects at Abu Safah and Qatif, and yield mostly Arab Light --similar in density to North Sea Brent crude. But analysts said it is still relatively high in sulfur and more difficult to refine into the low-sulfur products increasingly in demand for transport fuel. “The impact on the market will be pretty negligible,” said Seth Kleinman, analyst at PFC Energy in Washington. “The world is awash with sour because there is a dearth of desulfurisation capacity.” The surplus of heavy sour crude, which has lower yields of lighter products, but is rich in heavy products like fuel oil, has sent sour grades diving to record low differentials against light sweet marker grades that have hit record highs. Saudi Arabia’s latest Official Selling Prices for sales of its Arabian Heavy crude into the United States have been set at $11.30 below U.S. light sweet benchmark West Texas Intermediate, a fall of $3.35 compared with the level for May. Cleaner burning fuel Desulfurisation capacity is being increased, but so is demand for low-sulfur products as specifications are changed across the globe to introduce cleaner burning fuels. The new oil from Saudi Arabia’s Qatif field will be blended into Arab Light, while that from Abu Safah is Arab Medium. Crude quality is based on density, measured by American Petroleum Institute gravity standards and the amount of sulfur it contains. Arab Medium and Arab Light streams have respective APIs of 29-32 degrees and 32-36 degrees but relatively high sulfur contents of about 2.5 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. They would not make up for any major outage from Nigeria where unrest in the oil-rich Delta region is threatening to shut in production of light sweet high-quality crude. Still light Saudi oil offers more hope than heavy sours of alleviating current high oil prices, which for light sweet benchmark Brent crude and U.S. futures have hit record highs. “(Qatif) offers the highest near-term hope of narrowing light-heavy differentials,” Deborah White, senior economist at SG Commodities, said in a research note. But she cautioned that the industry predicted the extra oil would not come onstream until the end of October at best, rather than the end of September, as promised by Saudi Arabia. She also cited the impact of Hurricane Ivan this month, which led to the shutting in of between 1.5 and 2 million barrels per day of relatively sophisticated U.S. coastal refining capacity, better equipped to cope with heavier crudes. “There is no immediate way, that we can ramp up light sweet, but what the world can do is increase desulfurisation capacity,” said PFC’s Kleinman. msnbc.msn.com