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To: Taikun who wrote (53864)	9/30/2004 3:42:19 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

David, You are optimistic on both counts (number of generations and timeline for a human vaccine). Here are a couple of considerations that are not optimistic. recombinomics.com In the latest cluster, it seems likely that the 11 year old daughter was the index (first) case. She probably transmitted the virus to her mother, who had been with her in the hospital. However, the aunt developed symptoms after the mother (and long after the infected chckens were removed), so it is possible that the aunt was infected by the mother (sister of the aunt). The aunt's son also shows symptoms, so he may have been infected by his mother. Thus, it is possible that the virus was transmitted over 4 generations (although the index case may have infected the other 3 - and 1 of the 3 has yet to be confirmed). The key point however, is that it is NOT flu season. New seasons begin with colder weather and migrating birds. The above is just left-overs from the last season. The new season begins in 1-2 months. Peak infections last year were in January / February. Moreover, it is not clear how closely related next season's recombinant will to this season, or how effective the vaccine will be, especially since it is hard to even grow the virus in eggs, because it is so lethal. Thus, the vaccine may take awhile, and scale up may be a problem, and the virus isn't waiting around for the lab results. It continues to recombine in a VERY unstable environment (and infected migrating birds do not check in at the border).