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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el_gaviero who wrote (6972)	10/1/2004 3:52:28 PM
From: teevee	Respond to of 15991

Let me make a few predictions about what will happen if either Israel or the US strikes Iran. 1) No matter who actually does the dirty work, the Moslem world will correctly assume that the actual perpetrators are Israel AND the US. 2) Every wild notion of the Arabs about Zionism and Crusaders will turn out to be not paranoia but realism. 3) Iran will find ways to strike back, e.g.: * send agents across the border to help direct, supply and aid the insurgency in Iraq, ending any hope of a settlement there, and causing death and injury to many more Americans than would otherwise be the case. Beef up anti-Israel groups everywhere, such as the Hezbolla in Lebanon, etc., leading to the loss of more lives all around; * deploy the oil weapon by refusing to sell oil to Americans or to the West a la Saudi Arabia in 1973 --- or worse, find a way to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the Strait were shut down only intermittently, the consequences would be painful for the American economy. In addition to what Iran can do, the effect of bombing Iran would spread like a tsunami, washing away every moderate governments in the region, leaving radicals and fundamentalists in charge .... the moment Saudi Arabia goes, the rest of the oil goes, and the world finds itself short up to 30 million barrels a day... .... the moment Pakistan goes, nukes appear in the hands of every government in the region ..... Is this what you want? This is not the time to capitulate. Do you want Iran to become a nuclear power? I can assure you the outcome will be much much worse if Bush turns with his tail between his legs and allows the evil doers to prevail. I believe Bush and Israel must make pre emptive strikes now. If Iran or North Korea somehow found the will and the way to respond, the US has the arsenal on submarines, in the air, on the ocean an on land to deal with both of them.