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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (19288)	10/2/2004 4:56:08 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

RUSS: are you really PK? northerntrust.com

To: russwinter who wrote (19288)	10/2/2004 6:21:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

I'm wondering how to trade this. If we get a big phony USD rally, it may be the last chance to get totally out of the USD and into precious metals and strong currencies (which?). There's been a great metals stock rally already though, sidestep it on a trading basis and get out of the way, then look to reenter? How long could a bogus rally last, before the hangover of it hits? I don't think too long. I am starting to think we already had our bogus US$ rally. With the Euro at 1.30 everyone was talking 1.50 now when it fell to 1.20 or whatever I had char readers tell me it was going to 1.12 Russell (I think it was Russell) was talking about the need to reduce debt equating to a rise in the US$, etc etc. IMO everone hated the US$ at 1.30 now after a bogus correction everyone thinks the US$ is headed higher because of a lousy .75 basis point hike that did noting to fix the balance of trade or deficit spending or for that matter much of anything else (except for housing inventory). Hell in the face of rising housing inventory builders are still building out the wazoo. Now take a look at the lond bond. I believe it knows the score on housing and that score is not pretty. It is not pretty for the US$ and it is not pretty for jobs and it is not pretty for housing. I have given up on predicting declines on the markets but it in theory should not be pretty for that either. Mish