Kerry `Win' Against Bush in Debate May Provide Boost in Polls
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic challenger John Kerry may get a lift in the polls, judging by the responses of undecided voters who said he dominated his first debate with President George W. Bush.
Instant polls by the Gallup Organization, ABC News and CBS News immediately after Thursday night's debate found Kerry ahead by as much as 16 percentage points on the question of who won the encounter. Five of the 18 voters in the focus group by Republican pollster Frank Luntz said they moved from undecided to supporting Kerry, Luntz said in a press release. None switched to Bush.
``I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry's poll numbers go up a point or two because he stood up next to the president and probably passed at least part of the credibility test of `can you imagine this challenger being president?''' said David Boaz, executive director of the Cato Institute, a Washington-based research group that promotes limited government and free markets.
Bush entered the forum in Coral Gables, Florida, with a lead of eight percentage points or less, according to four national polls released before the debate. Fifty-three percent of 613 registered voters who watched the 90-minute debate said Kerry did better, according to a poll by Gallup for CNN and USA Today. Thirty-seven percent backed Bush. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Luntz's focus group was evenly divided between voters who chose Bush or former Vice President Al Gore in 2000. Following the debate, 16 of 18 said Kerry was better prepared and won. Thirteen of 18 said they agreed more with Kerry than with Bush.
`Presidential'
``Kerry is well poised to enjoy a polling surge,'' Luntz said in a statement. ``For swing voters, this was the first time in this campaign that Kerry stood side-by-side with Bush -- and he looked presidential. In fact, they think he dominated.''
Major polling organizations are conducting surveys now for release in the next few days. ``We're polling over the weekend'' on surveys whose results are scheduled for release either Monday or Tuesday, said Judith Keneman, an aide to Frank Newport, editor- in-chief of the Gallup Organization Inc. in Princeton, New Jersey.
Evans Witt, president of Princeton Survey Research International, a non-partisan polling firm, said he ``wouldn't be surprised'' if Kerry's approval ratings show ``a bit of a jump.''
``People's opinions are not fully formed on this,'' he said. ``They're going to watch the news shows, read the newspapers, go online, talk to their friends and then opinions will shift if they're going to shift.''
Leadership Skills
Karl Rove, Bush's top political adviser, dismissed the instant polls and focus groups, and said Bush succeeded in showing leadership skills and highlighted Kerry contradictions.
''I wouldn't read too much into one focus group, or make a lot out of a small group,'' Rove said.
``This is just like the Democratic convention, when people said Kerry made a great speech, but it was like Chinese food, it was satisfying at the moment but it didn't last,'' Rove said.
Participants in Luntz's focus group used words like ``confident, direct, secure,'' and ``reassuring'' to describe Kerry while they used words like ``nervous, disdainful, not well prepared'' and ``repetitive'' to describe Bush, Luntz said.
A few of the voters complained that Kerry didn't provide enough detail. Just two of the 18 said Kerry was a ``flip- flopper,'' a label the Bush campaign has used to describe Kerry's position on the Iraq war.
``Even though the swing voters wanted more information, Bush had already lost the debate after the first fifteen minutes,'' said Luntz. ``Swing voters are not motivated by a desire to vote against President Bush. Rather, they are eager for a reason to vote for Kerry, and he gave them several.''
Swing Voters
The ABC poll of 531 registered voters found 45 percent said Kerry ``won,'' against 36 percent for Bush. The incumbent had support from 50 percent of those viewers before the debate and 51 percent after. Kerry was supported by 46 percent before the event and 47 percent afterward. CBS's survey, conducted via the Internet, found that 43 percent of 200 uncommitted voters who watched said Kerry won, 28 percent said Bush was the winner and 29 percent said they tied.
CBS said the survey was among voters who indicated they are undecided or who said they might change their mind. The margin of error is plus or minus 7 percentage points, CBS said.
Bush futures traded on Intrade.com, a Dublin-based market that opened in 2001, fell from 67 the day before the debate to 65 at 1:20 p.m. in Dublin. The futures prices represent the odds bettors give Bush for winning the election. Kerry futures rose from 36 to 36.2, meaning futures buyers give him a 36 percent chance of winning the election. Winning contracts climb to 100 and yield $10 after the election, losing contracts expire worthless.
History
At this point in the 2000 race, Gore held a lead over Bush in polls taken by Newsweek and Bloomberg News. Bush took the lead after that year's debates. A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 22 states, including Texas and Florida, with 205 electoral votes.
Kerry leads in 10 states, including New York and Maryland, with 143 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 190 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Ohio, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.
Bush leads by 9 percentage points in Florida, according to a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 24-27 for Cable News Network and USA Today. Bush was the choice of 52 percent of 704 voters deemed likely to vote and Kerry was backed by 43 percent. The poll's margin of error was 4 percentage points. Bush and Kerry were in a statistical tie a week ago.
In Pennsylvania, Bush leads 49 percent to 46 percent among 654 likely voters polled Sept. 25-28 by Gallup. Among 799 registered voters, Kerry has 49 percent to 45 percent for Bush, within the margin for error. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garnered 1 percent of the vote in both Florida and Pennsylvania.
Ohio
Bush's lead in Ohio has narrowed to 2 percentage points, according to a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 25-28. Bush is supported by 50 percent of 633 likely voters and 48 percent back Kerry. The survey has a 4 percentage-point error margin. Bush led by 8 percentage points in Ohio three weeks ago.
Both campaigns have identified Ohio and its 20 electoral votes as key to the election. No Republican has ever been elected without carrying the state.
Kerry's lead in New Jersey, which no Republican presidential candidate has won since 1988, is also within the margin of error, according to Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. Kerry is supported by 43 percent of 489 likely voters surveyed Sept. 23-28, while 41 percent support Bush.
In Michigan, Bush and Kerry are in a statistical tie according to a Sept. 22-28 Detroit Free Press poll of 830 registered voters. Kerry is backed by 48 percent while 46 support Bush. The poll has a 3.5 percent margin of error. Kerry held at least a four-point lead in previous surveys, the Free Press said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Aimee Sullivan at asullivan@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 2, 2004 10:58 EDT |
