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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11622)	10/2/2004 8:29:59 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Here is an interesting "summary" type of report. host.wallstreetcity.com <<Investors Chipper at Start of Q4 Ridgeland, MS, OCT 01, 2004 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- The Dow (+112) and Nasdaq (+45) soared as investors jumped into stocks on the first day of the fourth quarter. The beaten up semiconductors (SOX +4.6%) were a big favorite. On average, semis gain 31.7% in the 7-month period beginning in October. TXN, NSM & ORCL led the S&P 100. However, ORCL far underperformed PSFT (+15%), which brought back its founder to run the company. The gains came despite crude oil closing at $50.12, a 7bp jump in the 10-yr yield, and a disappointing U of M sentiment revision. Complacency alert: The VXO & VIX closed at new 8-year lows. [snip] Sentiment --- AAII Poll: Bullish sentiment fell sharply to 41.1% from 51.2% in the week ended Wednesday. Investors are now nearly evenly divided with the bearish camp growing to 39.3% from 26.8%. Volatility: Low volatility numbers are indicative of investor complacency, a contrary technical indicator. --- The OEX Volatility Index (VXO 12.55 -0.89) closed at a new 8-year low. --- VIX closed at a new 8-year low. --- The 4-year old VXN closed at a new all time low. [snip]

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11622)	10/3/2004 10:29:58 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

>> A person could be much safer by investing in GE. Don, there is no fun in investing in GE. I am more interested in undertanding the role of inventories of all kinds (including an inventory of unused semi-making capacity). First we were wondering whether the lower US equip sales were masking strength in WW equip sales. Clearly this is NOT the case. I'm including data for two more chip makers. AMD and motorola. They follow the pattern of lower equip additions. Second, the idea that there is still much unused inventory is disputed by a person who knows this field much better than myself. Following is a snip from a Cary post ---------------- >>RE: "...a quantity of equipment from the bubble period..." I don't believe this is the case. Most of the bubble equipment is trailing edge, now, 250 and 180 nanometers. << Message 20562119 --------------- So, I think we should get used to a lower equip-sales/chip-sales ration. The reason I looked into cap ex for AMD and MOT is that these companies were starving, even during the bubble years. (I added a line for their earnings.) So they were not likely to have splurged on excess equip purchases. We know for a fact that AMD recently experienced a shortage of chips to satisfy demand. That means they do not have excess capacity. I think they will be instructive to watch in the future. Because their capacity additions will have to match their demand. sarmad ------------------- Motorola AMD year 03 02 01 revenue 3,519,168 2,697,029 3,891,754 CapEx (570,316) (705,147) (678,865) Pland&Equip 3,848,492 2,880,809 2,739,138 earnings (233,384) (1,225,386) (58,258) ---------------------- Motorola year 03 02 01 revenue 27,058,000 26,679,000 30,004,000 CapEx (655,000) (607,000) (1,321,000) PP&E 5,164,000 6,104,000 8,913,000 earnings 1,084,000 (1,813,000) (5,074,000)