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To: brian h who wrote (53941)	10/3/2004 7:39:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

hello brian h, Regarding ... Kan Kaili (BUPT) I truly believe the Chinese government is sincere about being neutral on 3G technology. The key is what's best for China. China does not want to repeat the 1980's when it imported all kinds of switching equipment, causing all kinds of difficulty in interconnection and expansion later. I think the government is more concerned about operators than equipment. The gov't has already put in $72 million in TD-SCDMA development, so my guess is if 3G should occur in China, TD-SCDMA will be used somehow. That said, I think 3G is highly unlikely in China, at least in the short term, say 2-3 years. The reasons are: first, the gov't is trying to make an economic "soft landing" by controlling spending. 3G will create excessive spending; second, China already has overcapacity in voice, whereas 3G is primarily for voice, from experience in Europe and elsewhere. So in my opinion, China should not deploy 3G in the near-term because it is against the market and interest of operators. Unicom already spent $8.2 billion on CDMA 1x with no revenue coming in. What's the point for it to build a new 3G network? I warned before that China should avoid becoming a test-bed for 3G service. I am always suspicious of why foreign companies want to sell their equipment in China, not in their home country. I suggested last March that Lucent and Qualcomm go back to the US, and Nokia and Ericsson go back to Europe to help Hutchison in Europe. The truth is, noone has made money on 3G, and this is the fact. I'll suggest equipment companies do your homework at home. Then I will welcome you to China. In this regard, I fully agree with the government that there is no hurry for 3G. ... please do illuminate me on what so obviously does not ring true to you. Chugs, Jay