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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (12750)	10/4/2004 10:01:48 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

his scenario is certainly possible -- but I think there are good reasons to reject it. A decent dollar bounce would be fine except for what would happen to rates and what has already happened to interest rates -- a further bounce in the dollar would mean rising interest rates -- 10 yr takes out 4.50 and there is gonna be real trouble. I don't think it happens Place your bets -- OR -- wait till the trend shows itself -- dollar is at close to 200 dma and 50 dma -- both of which have flattened considerably -- while gold has perked up -- more likely than not this is just a little gyration and the buck follows PMs lead. At least that's my story for now ... (please don't give me a lecture on the currency markets being bigger than the gold market ... I'm talking about indications here ...)