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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (51345)	10/4/2004 1:00:36 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 81568

Barry Ritholtz in Business Week writes: dailykos.com Update [2004-10-3 13:50:47 by DemFromCT]: Q: Who do you think will win the election? A: I'm a numbers geek at heart, so I watch four quantitative factors that have had a strong historical correlation with incumbent electoral victory, regardless of party. The first is job creation, second is Presidential approval rating, third is percentage saying the country is going in the right or wrong direction, and the fourth is the Dow Jones industrial average performance in the first half of the election year. The polls are saying this is a very close race, but all four of the above data points suggest the incumbent is in deep trouble. Over a four-year term, when job creation is less than 5%, studies have shown it's a huge negative for the occupant in the White House. As of last month, we were at a negative 0.8%. We see recent surveys showing the incumbent polling less than a 50% job-approval rating, and for the "right/wrong direction" question, only 36% are answering "right direction." These are big negatives. The Dow started the year at 10,450. It has come up off the lows but is still down for the year. It's a minor negative. Interesting article with some other good points for numbers geeks about the Wall Street/election relationship (tea leaves for Kerry - no guarantees).

To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (51345)	10/4/2004 1:34:37 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 81568

George Soros has started blogging... _________________________________ George Soros blog georgesoros.com Friday, October 1, 2004 Where and Why I'm Advertising I have received some questions from people wondering why I am advertising my message and this website on Republican blogs. [See Deans World.] I am particularly eager to reach moderate Republicans who might vote for Bush out of party loyalty. Much more is at stake than party loyalty and Bush hasn't been particularly loyal to the values and principles of the Republican Party. Just as America has to repudiate the Bush policies so must the Republican Party. posted by George Soros @ 10/01/2004 07:40:16 PM CST Thursday, September 30, 2004 Welcome to my blog On Tuesday I delivered a speech at the National Press Club in Washington explaining why I am involved in this election. In the coming weeks, I will be traveling the country to speak with more Americans about why I believe President Bush is endangering our safety, hurting our vital interests and undermining American values. I have started this website and this blog to hear from you. I am eager to engage in a critical discussion about this election because the stakes are so high, and I welcome your opinions here and on your own blogs. I am looking forward to responding to the many comments that I have already received in the days ahead. Thank you, and I look forward to hearing from you. posted by George Soros @ 09/30/2004 09:48:45 AM CST