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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (35514)	10/4/2004 9:47:06 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 206334

We should also think of that quasi import, tourism. Hawaii, Florida and Alaska have disproportionate amounts of tourist dollars. I think Hawaii is still a net importer, fueled with military payrolls and transfer payments to retirees. The ratio of JPY Yen to dollars will be a key influence on their tourist business, along with Japanesse economic growth. There are one or two mostly Hawaiian real estate companies - some not structured as REIT. Also BOH, Bank of Hawaii. Florida is a long way from being a net exporter, but a X% lower dollar could bring a 2X % increase in tourism, since Florida competes with other locations for European & Canadian tourists. If the US dollar drops a lot vs. the Euro, and the Canadian dollar doesn't drop as much - then for Canadians Florida will become cheaper and Europe more expensive. If oil prices are high, per passenger air fares go up. But multiple people in one car/SUV/mini van driving to Florida don't get hit as much. The overwhelming number of fixed income people in Florida should still mean a large net negative. Alaska has oil, gold and timber, and should act more like a resource country. States that get hit hardest will be low exporters with lots of fixed income retirees. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, - all of the South except the oil areas. ********** The companies that will get hit are the big improters, especially retailers. Wall Mart is the biggest, but since they are now in multiple countires - UK, Germany, Mexico, Brasil, etc. - the effect migh balance out. Plus, they have the money and smarts to really hedge their currency exposure - like South West Airlines did with oil costs. BTW, LUV (Southwest) has hedges about like 85% of 2004 at $22/bbl., 70% of 2005 at $25-28 / bbl. and 30% of 2006 at $28 /bbl. This from memory, so not exact. Speaking of hedging, wonder how well the homebuilders have hedged against higher interest rates....