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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (12840)	10/5/2004 1:57:38 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 116555

I loved this statement.... "Management’s credibility is an additional concern" SB hedging?

To: ild who wrote (12840)	10/5/2004 9:48:26 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

screw it then -- I've got till January with Pulte ... I'll take my chances. It has to start somewhere and spread from there ...

To: ild who wrote (12840)	10/5/2004 10:28:53 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Merrill Lynch says other homebuilders exposed to Las Vegas are as follows (% deliveries, 2003 figures): TOL - 5.6% DHI - 5% CTX - 2.8% LEN - 2.5% For comparison: PHM - 8.3%

To: ild who wrote (12840)	10/5/2004 11:03:52 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

It's amazing when you listen to the PHM call how "speculation" is acknowledged as a factor in this, but then is just ignored as if it "will go away". They seem to feel there are "natural buyers" who will come out of the woodwork willing to just show up in droves to replace speculators just because prices have been marked down some. Shows a profound lack of understanding of what motivates all these buyers, speculation and easy profit. Do specs and "natural buyers" have the courage to buy a declining market? More importantly, will lenders loan them the money to buy non-owner occupied houses, in a declining market? SB says the problems are PHM and LV specific. Then it says this to completely counterdict the PHM specfic part, how dishonest, shame of them! The Las Vegas market could weaken further as speculative buyers unload inventory. In particular, Pulte noted on its conference call that the number of existing homes for sale (in LV) has tripled from the first quarter of the year to 15,000.