To: steve harris who wrote (638226 ) 10/5/2004 10:20:30 AM From: Proud_Infidel Respond to of 769670 Bush Has 5-Point Edge Over Kerry, Two Polls Find (Update1) Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry by 5 percentage points in national polls taken after their first debate by the Pew Research Center and the Washington Post/ABC News. Majorities of voters in both surveys said Kerry was the winner of the Sept. 30 encounter, though he didn't close the gap with Bush shown in polls taken the week before the debate, according to Pew and Post/ABC data. Forty-nine percent of likely voters polled by Pew Oct. 1-3 back Bush and 44 percent support Kerry. Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 2 percent. The Post/ABC poll found Bush backed by 51 percent, Kerry by 46 percent and Nader, whose campaign says he is on the ballot in 33 states, by 1 percent. Four other national polls taken after the debate -- by Newsweek magazine, the Gallup Organization, Zogby International and the Los Angeles Times -- show the race to be statistically deadlocked. Both campaigns agree the race is close. ``We don't dance in the end zone and we don't cry in our beer,'' Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said in a conference call. ``This race is basically even, which is where we thought it was going to be'' at this point. Kerry campaign strategist Tad Devine said yesterday that ``the race has closed'' in the wake of the debate. Into November ``I've been saying for months -- I think the Bush campaign has been saying it too -- we expect a close race in November,'' he said on the ``Fox News Sunday'' program. The Post/ABC sampled 1,169 self-identified likely voters and the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Pew surveyed 801 likely voters, identified by their answers to six questions about past voting behavior and voting intentions. The margin of error is 4 percentage points. Although 52 percent of those polled by the Post/ABC and 58 percent of those surveyed by Pew said Kerry was the winner of last week's debate, voter preferences were mostly unchanged from polls conducted over the period Sept. 22-26. In the Sept. 23-26 Post/ABC poll, Bush was supported by 51 percent and Kerry was supported by 45 percent. Pew gave data for only registered voters for its Sept. 22-26 poll, which showed Bush with 48 percent to Kerry's 40 percent. In the current poll, Bush led among registered voters 48 percent to Kerry's 41 percent. The result marks the first time in 16 years that Pew found a Democratic candidate doing better among likely voters than among all adults 18 or older who are registered, according to the Washington-based research organization. Voter Impressions The Post/ABC poll found voters had a more favorable impression of Kerry, 60, after the debate. Forty-seven percent in the Oct. 1-3 survey said they had a favorable impression of the four-term senator from Massachusetts and 42 percent said unfavorable. In September, 39 percent had a favorable view of Kerry and 45 percent said unfavorable. For Bush, 58, the numbers didn't change. Fifty-three percent said they had a favorable impression of the president in both the recent Post/ABC polls. The debate was dominated by questions about Iraq and terrorism it may have pushed those two issues to the top of voter concerns. For the first time since July Iraq and terrorism were mentioned more often than the economy as the most important issue in the election. Iraq, Terrorism Iraq was cited by 26 percent of likely voters, terrorism was mentioned by 24 percent and the economy was named by 21 percent in the Post/ABC poll. Bush continues to lead Kerry when voters are asked who they trust to do a better job on Iraq and terrorism. Fifty-two percent said Bush would do a better job handling Iraq and 41 percent said Kerry. On terrorism, 54 percent said they trusted Bush more and 38 percent said Kerry. Among the other polls conducted Oct. 1-3, Utica, New York- based Zogby found Bush is supported by 46 percent of 1,036 likely voters, and Kerry is backed by 45 percent, results within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. That was little change from Zogby polls in September. With other candidates included, Bush is supported by 46 percent, Kerry by 43 percent, independent candidate Ralph Nader by 2.4 percent and Libertarian Michael Badnarik by 0.6 percent. More Debates Bush and Kerry are scheduled to engage in two more debates. On Oct. 8 they will meet at Washington University in St. Louis to answer questions from a group of undecided voters. The final debate will be Oct. 13 at Arizona State University in Tempe. It will be focused on domestic issues. Forty-one percent of voters plan to watch tomorrow's debate between Vice President Dick Cheney and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, the Democratic vice presidential candidate. By comparison, 61 percent said they watched the Sept. 30 presidential debate and 59 percent plan to tune into the Oct. 8 presidential debate in St. Louis. Voters surveyed by Pew give Bush better odds at winning the election than do political futures markets. Sixty-one percent of registered voters say Bush will win the election and 29 percent say Kerry will win. The Dublin-based Intrade online futures market gives Bush a 59.7 percent chance of victory and Kerry a 40.5 percent chance.