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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (12890)	10/5/2004 6:01:24 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

reaper was right in the end, eh? that was on of his favorite short picks

To: russwinter who wrote (12890)	10/5/2004 8:50:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Even with Iraq, economy still key election issue Tuesday, October 5, 2004 10:15:45 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- When President Bush and John Kerry face off for the second of three presidential debates on Friday, the ink won't have dried on the latest Labor Department figures on the U.S. employment situation That timing is sure to provide for as a lively a debate on the economy as viewers saw in last week's debate on Iraq and foreign policy Of course, it's a "town-hall" style debate and participants are allowed to ask questions on the topic of their choosing. Let's hope for something more probing than "boxers or briefs?" Polls continually say the economy is the issue voters want to hear most about, even as violence mounts in Iraq and both campaigns stress their candidate's plans to restore order to the oil-rich nation A CBS News/New York Times poll released Monday found 23 percent of respondents considered the economy the top priority, while 20 percent said Iraq was the most important issue facing the candidates this election "There are an awful lot of people (in both parties) who would much rather be looking at jobs and health care and stem cells," said Norman Ornstein, scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, even though Iraq is at the forefront of discussion now "Many people out there are naturally more interested in those domestic issues" than foreign policy, he said According to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch, economists on Wall Street expect the Labor Department to report the economy added about 38,000 jobs in September. It's the last monthly jobs report to be released before the Nov. 2 presidential election. But the department is also expected to revise its estimates for the year between March 2003 and March 2004, and the White House Council of Economic Advisors believes those revisions are going to be good news for Bush White House economists crunched the numbers and expect the Labor Department to add as many as 300,000 jobs to the 700,000 jobs the department has already said were created in the 12 months leading up to March 2004 Greg Mankiw, CEA chairman, told reporters in Philadelphia on Tuesday the estimate, first reported in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal, is just an "internal guess" and the actual number released by the Labor Department is more important than the White House prediction Even with the higher numbers for the one-year period through March, Democratic challenger John Kerry is certain to pounce on the official confirmation that Bush is the first president since Herbert Hoover to preside over an economy with net job losses Heading into the September report, nonfarm payrolls are down more than 900,000 jobs during his term. Bush has countered that hiring has turned up in the past year, growing by a total of 1.7 million since last August And the unusual release of the private White House estimates about upcoming jobs figures is likely to make it into Tuesday's debate between Vice President Dick Cheney and N.C. Sen. John Edwards in Cleveland "The idea that (the release of the estimates) is not related to the political campaign and the debates coming up, just doesn't pass the smell test," Ornstein said, "you've got to believe that there will be a question" about it Of course, voters don't have to turn away from foreign policy completely to turn to one of the most pressing domestic issues: record oil prices Crude-oil futures closed above $51 a barrel for the first time Tuesday. Energy prices are certain to come up in Tuesday's debate between Edwards and Cheney, the former chief executive of oil services giant Halliburton. ============================================================ Russ what do you make of those numbers? +300,000 revision. Do you buy that? Is it even relevant? Housing is falling now, spending is falling now, and oil is rising now. Why should treasuries or Eurodollars react to what happened 6 months ago? Now, even if they do not, will they? Are 200,000 "jobs" selling crap on EBAY relevant to anything? What about wages? One thing I will say is the shock value is now gone even on +100,000 revision now. Perhaps the shock value is gone on +175,000 revision now. Even higher? Can it be "buy the news" as in treasuries even at +225,000 revision? Would anyone even believe Bush at +300,000 revision? I would not believe that, no way in hell. Note: by believe I mean think that those jobs were really created as opposed to the govt saying 300,000 jobs were created. I do believe Bush would tell any lie to get re-elected. Therefore I could believe that even +400,000 could be reported. After that buildup expectations should be pretty high right now. You got a take on this whole mess? Thanks Mish