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To: Tommaso who wrote (7792)	10/5/2004 8:32:22 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11633

Tommaso, Do you follow OPC? They are working on an oil sands play with Nexen and Enbridge. One post mentions them as a trust but this is speculation. David finance.yahoo.com stockhouse.ca Jump to COS.UN Forum SUBJECT: very bullish report on cos.un Posted By: emailslob Post Time: 10/5/04 09:53 « Previous Message Next Message » from national bank....apples to apples bear in mind cos.un is pretax nav and I beleive opc will become a trust (its the cheapest) Pick A Number… Any Number – NAVPS Sensitivity Analysis In our view, the three most critical determinants of the value associated with an oil sands development are investor assumptions regarding oil prices, discount rates and growth potential. Due to the fact that oil sands projects have generally constant 25-30 year production profiles, small changes in discount rates or oil prices tend to result in material changes in present value. In the matrices and graphs below, we present Net Asset Value sensitivities to try to establish what the market is currently recognizing in the equity values with respect to these three assumptions. This is an update from work last presented in our March 24, 2004 report, “Comparative Look at Oil Sands Mining Operations.” Embedded Oil Price Analysis – Looking at the four tables on the left side of the next page, we have specified a base case for each company - Firebag Phase 1 for SU; Syncrude Stage 3 for COS.un, Muskeg expansion for WTO and Long Lake initial project for OPC. If one assumes a 7% discount rate, the market appears to be reflecting a US$27/bbl long-term WTI price for COS.un, US$31/bbl price for WTO, something north of US$40/bbl for SU and about US$25 for OPC. Given the strong growth profiles inherent in each of these companies, investors can also examine a full development assumption, although there may be a persuasive argument for using a higher discount rate. Investment Stance Since late-March, COS.un has outperformed its oil sands counterparts generating a total return of 32%. This compares with a total return of 15% for SU and 14% for WTO. Based on our NAVPS sensitivity and notwithstanding our oil price stance, SU continues to be the most expensive oil sands play and we would retain our bias for investors to favour COS.un and to a lesser extent WTO. At present, we do not rate OPC. We would also note that the prevailing strong oil environment coupled with weaker relative gas pricing should help strengthen oil sands operating margins in the near-term. Weaker gas prices are more of a boon to WTO and COS.un as they are net consumers of natural gas. WTI (US$/bbl) 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% WTI (US$/bbl) 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 25 $57.49 $46.71 $37.94 $30.72 $24.73 $25 $74.84 $59.50 $47.23 $37.31 $29.22 30 $89.68 $75.09 $63.22 $53.44 $45.31 $30 $117.67 $96.71 $79.88 $66.23 $55.05 35 $121.74 $103.36 $88.37 $76.02 $65.74 $35 $160.39 $133.79 $112.40 $95.01 $80.73 40 $153.81 $131.62 $113.52 $98.61 $86.18 $40 $203.11 $170.88 $144.91 $123.78 $106.42 Share Price @ Oct 4, 2004 - $56.77 Share Price @ Oct 4, 2004 - $56.77 CDN OIL SANDS TRUST w. STAGE 3 EXPANSION - 2004(E) NAVPS 1 CDN OIL SANDS TRUST w. FULL DEVELOPMENT - 2004(E) NAVPS 1 Enbridge says has deal to handle Long Lake oil Mon Sep 20, 2004 05:08 PM ET VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Enbridge Inc. (ENB.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) struck a tentative agreement on Monday to expand its pipeline capacity to handle production from the Long Lake oil sands project in Alberta. Enbridge said the agreement with Nexen Inc (NXY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) . and OPTI Canada Inc (OPC.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) has an initial contract volume of up to 60,000 barrels a day for 50 months. The first production from Long Lake's upgrader is expected in 2007. Enbridge will expand storage and other facilities by late 2006 on its Athabasca Pipeline near Cheecham, Alberta, where it has also proposed to build the Waupisoo Pipeline to Edmonton. Calgary-based Enbridge did not release the cost of the expansion. yahoo.reuters.com