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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (58709)	10/6/2004 2:37:09 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Why George Soros is a billionaire -- and you're not! pnionline.com Why Dick Cheney is a loser -- and you're not! pnionline.com __________________ jw: hope things are going well for you and thanks for sharing the insights with the thread. -s2@KerryStillHasTheALLImportantMomentum.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (58709)	10/6/2004 2:43:23 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Is Missouri Still in Play? swingstateproject.com Wednesday, October 06, 2004 Missouri Still in Play? Posted by DavidNYC Well, well, well - whaddya know? After a slew of polls showing Bush over 50% in Missouri, SUSA pegs him at 49% (likely voters, early September in parens): Kerry: 47 (46) Bush: 49 (48) Other/undecided: 4 (5) (MoE: ±3.8%) It's also a one-point fight in the Governor's race, though we are getting smoked in the Senate campaign. Anyhow, I swear I read somewhere that even though the Kerry campaign isn't spending any more money in MO, the 527s have stepped in big-time. I thought I had read it around a week or two ago in the New York Times, but I have been utterly unable to retrieve it. If you've seen any similar stories anywhere else, kindly post a link. I think it's important to keep the other side sweating in Missouri so that they can't pull out their resources and funnel them to Florida or Ohio. There are also several important House races in the mix, so staying strong on the ground is essential. At this point, I'd predict that MO will likely be a very narrow loss for us. However, if Kerry can stay strong in the last two debates and the media narrative is "Wow! This race is close!" rather than, "Kerry is still struggling," then I think Missouri is a definite possibility for us.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (58709)	10/6/2004 2:45:35 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

It's Close in Ohio _________________________ swingstateproject.com Posted by DavidNYC Wednesday, October 06, 2004 So the headline states the obvious, but what more is there to say? SUSA has a new Ohio poll out, which shows our boy with the narrowest of leads (likely voters, early September in parens): Kerry: 49 (47) Bush: 48 (50) Other/Undecided: 3 (4) (MoE: ±3.6%) The poll was conducted after the first presidential debate, but it was a weekend poll, so apply whatever caveats you feel are appropriate. Yeah, this lead is what they like to call "statistically insignificant," but what I think is a bit more legit is the four point swing from B+3 to K+1. I like SUSA - I think they are fairly reliable, and I also love the PDFs they release for each poll. I only wish they'd ask more questions, particularly about favorability. They do assert in their headline that this result is due to the debate, which is nice to hear. Not that you needed me to tell you this, but the race in this state is certain to come down to the wire. I don't think future polling will tell us much - we just need to stick it out here, work the ground game hard and keep our fingers crossed on election day.