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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TARADO96 who wrote (51765)10/6/2004 10:38:28 AM
From: redfishRespond to of 81568
 
If Kerry wins, Bush will go down with Bill Buckner as pulling the biggest chokes in history.



To: TARADO96 who wrote (51765)10/6/2004 12:23:04 PM
From: techguerrillaRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 81568
 
The first debate was historical ... turning point ...

...... in US history. A major turn to the right may have been averted.

A good friend of mine--very balanced (Republican vs. Democrat)--said that after the debate his main concern was what Bush would do to damage the country during his "lame duck" period, November to January. I said you are assuming facts not in evidence--i.e. a Kerry victory.

Momentum is on the side of the Democrats.

/john



To: TARADO96 who wrote (51765)10/6/2004 2:46:40 PM
From: stockman_scottRespond to of 81568
 
It's Close in Ohio

_________________________

swingstateproject.com

Posted by DavidNYC

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

So the headline states the obvious, but what more is there to say? SUSA has a new Ohio poll out, which shows our boy with the narrowest of leads (likely voters, early September in parens):

Kerry: 49 (47)
Bush: 48 (50)
Other/Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±3.6%)

The poll was conducted after the first presidential debate, but it was a weekend poll, so apply whatever caveats you feel are appropriate. Yeah, this lead is what they like to call "statistically insignificant," but what I think is a bit more legit is the four point swing from B+3 to K+1.

I like SUSA - I think they are fairly reliable, and I also love the PDFs they release for each poll. I only wish they'd ask more questions, particularly about favorability. They do assert in their headline that this result is due to the debate, which is nice to hear. Not that you needed me to tell you this, but the race in this state is certain to come down to the wire. I don't think future polling will tell us much - we just need to stick it out here, work the ground game hard and keep our fingers crossed on election day.