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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (926)	10/6/2004 10:50:29 AM
From: Michael Young	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8420

<< Stern has 15M listeners on unpaid radio. I doubt he's going to bring 10M more.>> You are wrong. There are a lot of markets where he isn't on the air due to FCC pressure. This opens up a huge new audience for Stern. He is already by far the biggest attraction on radio. I love my XM, but I'll probably be switching to a Sirius unit in the future, largely because of the NFL package.

To: i-node who wrote (926)	10/6/2004 11:15:47 AM
From: rrufff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8420

If they get 4 million listeners, then you are talking about $600 million in new subscriptions. They can probably make another $100 million in ads and another $100 million in promotions. That doesn't count the premium channnels Stern will develop for them. If you take 800 million based on 4 million new subscribers, then you have this deal alone giving at 4 P/S a market cap addition of 3.2 billion / 1.2 billion shares = 2.67. Add that to whatever you think the rest of the business is worth, with NFL, with the previous crap, and then discount a year perhaps and I think you have a very conservative present value of $5. I think that's a bottom line. The rest is all guesses and you will see analysts with price targets of 10-20 coming out over the next month to pump it. You may not agree, but that's the game and it will be played. As for earnings and bottom line, at least they can now talk about this. To get to a 40 PE they need to earn only 30 million. That may be doable with only a million Stern listeners.