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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (941)	10/6/2004 5:31:23 PM
From: rrufff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8420

I don't think they will have any problems getting 3-4 million news subs. The problems I see are more because of the crappy capital structure and the dilution. I think the operational side is going to be a home run. Will it translate into gains to the bottom line analyzing investor? To me that's the big question. I see reasonable numbers that support a price between $4 and $6 both running revenue and a guess at earnings. (Disregard math error in my previous post, but depending on dilution, .30 in net income, should be doable with 3-4 million subs). But that's 2 years down the road and has to be discounted obviously in valuing today. To me the issues are the capital structure, the extent of dilution, how much Howard and management "grab," etc. My analysis obviously gets blown out if they are closer to 2 billion shares fully diluted. To me no question, that the industry survives now and specifically SIRI, which I always questioned in the past. Again, the real problem is the capital structure and how it will look after they satisfy Stern and management. It will be interesting to see if they disclose the extent and terms of what Stern can earn if they bring over 3-4 million subscibers and how Stern gets "credit." For example, how do they know that someone joins for STern or for NFL? This will be important as they have incentives that gives Stern stock and options probably and maybe even more cash, but I doubt that. Long term, doesn't matter as most will look at the capital structure and I hope it doesn't get to 2 billion shares fully diluted.