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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mao II who wrote (13359)	10/6/2004 5:20:46 PM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

M2 >>Why do you doubt a substantial run-up? Stellar 3 is completely blinded and date for unblinding has been substantially extended due to longer-lived patients.>> I would like to quote my past encounters with the un-anticipated as a reason for my doubt. One possible explanation for the extended timeline might be differences in the study population. PS - the Performance Status which has been used as a recruitment criterium seems to be a rather rough way of characterising the physical condition of a cancer patient. I guess it is for example possible that differences in inclusion/exclusion criteria compared to historical studies may account for an extended survival. The Stellar studies are by the way not completely blinded. At the site level they are actually open label due to the fact that paclitaxel requires a three hours infusion and Xyotax can be given over 10 minutes. For Xyotax no pre-tretments are required etc. etc. Each patient and each investigator will have full knowledge of which of the treatment arms they belong to. It is only on the aggregated level that a blind is supposed to exist. Erik

To: Mao II who wrote (13359)	10/6/2004 5:20:49 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Why do you doubt a substantial run-up? Stellar 3 is completely blinded and date for unblinding has been substantially extended due to longer-lived patients Well then why hasn't the run-up occurred already? There isn't going to be any additional new information (as far as I know) before the release date. It could be the market is just being inefficient (slow) here, and as people focus on this more (closer to the release date) the run-up will occur. On the other hand, the very high implied volatilities suggest that the market has already focused on this event and come to its decision. I personally believe the market's current decision is wrong, so I own some of the stock (but not in any great amounts). Peter