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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SilentZ who wrote (205542)	10/7/2004 5:29:03 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573690

Kerry, Bush Deadlocked in Three Battleground States, Polls Say Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) President GW Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry is a tossup in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania -- the three biggest battleground states -- according to six polls taken after the candidates' Sept. 30 debate. Two polls in Ohio show the race a dead heat. Bush leads Kerry in one Florida poll and is statistically tied in another. In Pennsylvania, one poll shows Kerry leading and another shows the candidates deadlocked. Bush won Florida and Ohio in the 2000 election and lost Pennsylvania. The three states represent a quarter of the 270 electoral votes each candidate needs to win the presidency, and they are among the 17 to 20 states that both campaigns have targeted with advertising and candidate appearances. To win the presidency a candidate must get majorities in enough states to garner more than half the 538 electoral votes, which are apportioned among states based on congressional representation. National polls by Reuters/Zogby International and Marist College show the two candidates statistically tied. An Associated Press/Ipso Public Affairs survey gives Kerry a 4 percentage point lead. ``The race has clearly tightened up,'' said political science professor Bruce Altschuler of the State University of New York at Oswego. ``The debate had a very galvanizing effect'' that helped dispel ``grave doubts about Kerry'' in an electorate where ``there was a significant anti-Bush sentiment.'' State Races A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Utah, with 178 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 11 states, including New York and Illinois, with 164 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 196 electoral votes results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error. The Sept. 30 debate on foreign policy between Kerry and Bush in Coral Gables, Florida, helped the four-term Massachusetts senator improve his favorable rating among U.S. voters, according to a poll by the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey. The Oct. 1-6 Annenberg survey of 1,868 registered voters showed that 44 percent had a favorable view of Kerry and 40 percent an unfavorable opinion. A Sept. 21-26 poll said 42 percent viewed Kerry unfavorably and 41 percent favorably. Bush has a favorable rating of 51 percent of those surveyed, up from 50 percent in the earlier poll. The new survey has an error margin of plus or minus 2 percentage points. National Race Three polls show the race also is close nationally. Bush and Kerry were in a statistical tie according to a Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 4-6. Bush led Kerry 46 percent to 44 percent, within the survey's error margin of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garnered support of 1.8 percent. An AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll gave Kerry a 50-46 percent lead over Bush, the AP said. The poll had a 3 percentage-point margin of error. A Sept. 20-22 AP-Ipsos poll had Bush leading Kerry 52-45 percent. Poughkeepsie, New York-based Marist College Institute for Public Opinion found Bush supported by 49 percent of likely voters nationally to Kerry's 46 percent. The Oct. 4-5 survey has an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. In Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, an American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters conducted Oct. 4-6 showed that Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent saying they would vote for Nader. Kerry's lead is within the survey's 4 percentage-point margin of error. Earlier Data A Sept. 17-20 poll by the firm, which is based in Manchester, New Hampshire, showed Bush with a 48-46 percent lead. The latest survey shows that Kerry led Bush among independent voters 51 percent to 43 percent. Kerry led Bush 49 percent to 48 percent in an Oct. 2-4 SurveyUSA poll of 761 likely voters for WCPO-TV in Cincinnati and WKYC-TV in Cleveland. The polling firm said the candidates are in a statistical tie because Kerry's lead is within the error margin of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. SurveyUSA uses an automated system to conduct its interviews. No Republican has gained the presidency without carrying Ohio, which lost 237,000 jobs since 2001 In Pennsylvania, Kerry has a 2 percentage point lead over Bush in polls of likely voters conducted by the American Research Group. The lead is within the survey's margin of error. A Pennsylvania poll conducted by West Chester University gave Kerry a 7 percentage point, exceeding the survey's 4 percentage point margin. The state has 21 electoral votes. Florida Two Florida polls showed voters are almost evenly divided between Kerry, 60, and Bush, 58. A third survey gave Bush a 7 percentage point lead over the Democrat. The state is the most populous among the 17 states that were decided by less than 7 percentage points in the last election and that have been identified by both campaigns as key battlegrounds for Nov. 2. It has 27 electoral votes. Bush held a 48-44 percent lead over Kerry in a poll of 625 likely voters conducted Oct. 4-5 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington for Knight Ridder newspapers and MSNBC. An American Research Group sample showed Kerry led Bush 48- 46 percent among 600 likely voters polled Oct 2-5. Both polls had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Bush led Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent in the Oct. 1-5 poll by Quinnipiac University of Hamden, Connecticut. Terrorism was cited as the most important issue in both the Mason-Dixon and Quinnipiac polls, and that gives the president an edge in Florida, according to Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The polls don't take into account voter enthusiasm that waxes and wanes throughout the campaign, said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carlton College in Northfield, Minnesota. Continued................ quote.bloomberg.com