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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jayhawk969 who wrote (7852)	10/7/2004 1:05:52 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 11633

I assume you mean non-resident (not American) investment. I suppose yields would rise. Valuations would fall, junior e&ps would fall in valuation. Debt and equity issuances would be challenging, and debt would be at higher interest rates, secondaries at bigger disocunts. Since the Chinese and others wouldn't be able to purchase resource assets, there would be overall less liquidity in the system. Some companies might fail, spooking Canadian investors-the only ones left-who would increasingly withdraw money from the sector and put it into more stable asset classes and overseas (if they were allowed). Canadians and Americans would pour money into US trusts which were now exploring exciting overseas targets. The country's oil assets would look more like Turkmenistan. Tax revenues at the Federal and Provincial level would drop due to lower royalty rates and less income tax being paid by the energy companies. Alberta would try to separate amidst an intensified money and land grab by the Feds. Bay Street would be in recession because investment bankers and lawyers could not issue new trusts. The mutual fund industry would fall off a cliff. The Canadian dollar would fall since energy production would fall. There would be not enough domestic capital to develop the oil sands. Canada and the US would get in a tiff because Canadian oil exports were dropping while Mexico's were rising. US investors would find another country that greets their capital with open arms. Perhaps African oil plays or Caspian oil plays would be in vogue. Mexico, Turkey, Malaysia, East Timor and Gabon would issue oil trusts. Australia would add more trust issues in addition to its high yield Australian Pipeline Trust. Canada would be sidelined. Of course this is all speculation.