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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (12976)	10/7/2004 2:31:59 AM
From: RiceTrader	Respond to of 116555

Hello Mish, I'm just a lurker here, however I found your link to the BMO report yesterday on China very interesting. This link from Northern Trust has a similar theme but seems like the commentary has its thumb firmly in the cheek. The China situation is very interesting being that it imports inflation and exports deflation. Apparently, this type of world scenario has not been seen before. It would seem to me that someone or something in China would have to pay the piper for the scenario of importing inflation and exporting deflation. Who would suffer? The Chinese corporation? Is there such a thing? Are Chinese corporations in debt and the debt is somehow forgiven or assumed by the Chinese government? Importing inflation and exporting deflation does not intuitively seem sustainable. I think it would be interesting to understand this and speculate how it could play out. RiceTrader

To: mishedlo who wrote (12976)	10/7/2004 7:50:27 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Is he for real? Instabilities and the danger (for the US) of the status quo is (I would think) crystal clear. He is naive to think this will go on forever. China will continue with this system of gulping US debt and exporting for maybe a decade, growing fast until (1) its economy develops to a mature power, and (2) its population growth cools (started already - check out Newsweek this month with cover "Baby Bust") thanks to a period of "One child per family". What is going to happen then to the fuel guzzling, consumption heaven based on low-cost debt that is the US? Cheeky opinion pieces on the present state of "heaven" is all well and good, but can't take them too seriously, if they think it will last and don't even seem to have considered that the other guys might actually have a long term plan.