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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (11640)	10/7/2004 2:14:42 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

FACTBOX-Leading signals on world economic growth Thu Oct 7, 2004 02:10 PM ET WASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The roaring world economy is cooling into the year-end, but a series of leading indicators on global activity are starting to show renewed bullishness about the prospects for 2005, in spite of sky-high oil prices. Following is a checklist on key world growth forecasts and a selection of indicators of global economic expectations: --------------------------------------------------------- -- IMF forecasts 2004 growth of five percent - the fastest in 30 years. Even though it expects a slowdown next year, its forecast for 2005 of 4.3 percent is still almost a full point higher than the average of the past 20 years. -- A breakdown of IMF forecasts shows a split between what it sees as advanced economies, such as members of 30-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the developing world. At 2.9 percent next year, the former is slated to grow a about half the 5.9 percent rate of latter. -- World stocks, defined by the MSCI World Fee Index , are currently at their highest level in almost six months. To the extent equity prices discount future corporate earnings, this is often seen as a powerful leading economic indicator. The index is up eight percent up from August lows and 15 percent up on 12 months ago. Wall St volatility measures , which tend to rise in line with big changes underlying equity trends, hit their lowest in eight years last week. -- The oil price surge to record highs above $52 per barrel is well documented, but the broad-based Reuters-CRB Index of 17 commodities, including oil, is at its highest in 23 years and up 14 percent in the past year. -- Industrial metals prices , seen a good gauge of underlying industrial activity, are their highest in 10 years -- up 10 percent in the past month and 45 percent on a year ago. -- Shipping prices, such as the Baltic Dry Freight Index , have been flat in recent weeks, but remain 20 percent up on a year ago and 60 percent up on the year's low in June. -- September surveys of manufacturing and service sector businesses across the developed world, including the Reuters/NTC Purchasing Managers Indices, continue to show a cooling of activity from the frenetic Spring pace. Click on: [ID:nL056664012]. But JPMorgan's global aggregate of these surveys is still at 57.2 -- well above the boom-bust level of 50 -- and the latest readings show the pace of hiring rising to its highest since May. -- Despite all these signals of robust activity, debt markets continue to reflect a benign view of inflation in major western economies. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) are roughly where they were a year ago and are down more than 60 basis points from 2004 peaks, despite three Fed rate rises. The pattern is similar the euro zone, with British and Japanese 10- year yields higher by a quarter point or less than this time last year. JPMorgan's benchmark index of emerging market debt is still 11 percent higher on a year ago .