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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hilligas who wrote (12991)	10/7/2004 4:11:29 AM
From: hilligas	Respond to of 116555

ADEQUATE PART 2: First post should answer your primary question being 'adequate for what?'. Now to what I still believe was a politically held or influenced by at least, set of questions: 1.'adequate for prices to skyrocket another 80%??'-Probably not, but not impossible-Next 30 days $57 oil to $75-not much doubt in my mind about continued disruptions in Iraq. Enough for $57 oil-all additional disruptions globally drive to possible $75.Any such advances most likely short lived, depending on the severity of the disruption.Let Kerry get elected and you can carve it in granite (IMHO) 2.'record profits for the producers?'-YES!!45to50 pretty well baked in to today-40 for sure-but my opinion everyone is missing for producers is lack of labor primarily which equates to lack of additional rigs,equipment,etc. They are going "balls to the wall" currently and have been for 2 years. Value them on cash flow primarily and not net growth (very hard to do except for the small juniors with a GOOD property to develope. Higher prices basis for higher cash flow and vise versa.Caveat:They can't do it any faster!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 3.Payback for oil interest for job well done in Iraq? REDICULOUS!Do you know how many of them have been killed?? Halliburton is currently selling one of its subsidiaries over there now! You will see the day you'll be grateful for our troops and oil people over in that Hellhole! In North America also!You are dealing with crazies,brain washed from birth that love killing you,me,my kids, your kids-Get Real! My take on a few other things: Housing--OVERBUILT and building!?? Fed Rate-2-possibly2.5 for 2004---down in 2005 10 yr T-4.4 possible, then down $-up a lil,down a lil short term-down long term(over time +/-20% Gold-Possible $500-2004-Longer Term-no telling Nat Gas-$10.00 to $15.00 spikes most likely this winter-$7.50 to$8.00 till spikes. 2005 avg- $7.00 Yen-the one to watch!headed for a long walk to $105 "That's enough from me as I never do this type of thing and I'm probably all wet anyway" Enjoy reading the thread and eveyone on it! 'That's my story and I'm stickin to it!!'All MHO! I almost forgot: When will the sheet hit the fan? Most likely 2010!!!!!!!!!! Don