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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (13040)	10/7/2004 12:59:35 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Monster Job listings The Monster Employment Index climbed to its highest level since its inception (Oct '03) rising from 145 in Aug to 151 in Sep a sign of broad growth in job availability. Is this a sign of more jobs or a sign of more jobs being posted online? There is a huge difference between those statements. 1) Monster is a growing company. Why wouldn't their number of postings be expected to climb? 2) More companies are turning to Monster for their recruiting needs. Fewer recruiters running around to college campuses equates to cheaper search costs for employers. Why wouldn't or shouldn't employers attempt to reduce their recruitment costs. 3) Do more online postings indicate that more real jobs are available? I think not. My wife was recently looking for an accounting job and I would often see what was the same job posted in multiple ways and/or by multiple people, sometimes even by the same recruiter. Other times I would see multiple recruiters for the same company posting the same job. Often times a listing would be identical to another one a page or so lower, with a mere one or two word change in the description header. What this tells me is that there is more and more competition even within the same placement firm to place fewer and fewer people. In short, the number of jobs posted by various placement firms companies to go after the available job slots is simply increasing. My recent experience indicates that If there was one slot available for a senior account vs. a plain accountant, the same job would be posted at least twice, more if others got in the act. 4) Some companies are using Monster directly rather than going thru employment agencies that list on Monster. I believe this is in lieu of normal advertising. Take a look at job posting in the local newspaper. Is Monster's posting gain a newspaper advertising loss? I think so. This is all part of the trend towards cutting costs everywhere, even on recruitment expenses. Compare Monster to this: rasmussenreports.com hudson-index.com Now is Hudson more likely to be accurate or Monster postings? Does monster know something this chart does not? home.pacbell.net How about challenger mass layoff data? cbs.marketwatch.com{B1A3BD45-B068-41F1-80C6-E70929B0288F}&siteid=mktw Layoff announcements by U.S. companies surged 45 percent in September to nearly 108,000, the highest number of planned job cuts since January, outplacement firm Challenger Grey & Christmas said Tuesday. Job reduction announcements are up 41 percent from September 2003, while year-to-date job cuts are down 17 percent from 2003's pace, Challenger said. The total of 107,863 announced layoffs for the month was not seasonally adjusted, the firm said. "The return to six-figure job-cut levels paints a grim picture for ongoing economic growth, as such activity is generally considered a measure of how companies view future business conditions," John Challenger, chairman of the firm, said in a written statement. Now, I do not know what tomorrows numbers will be, but I do not doubt for one second that there will be pressure placed on the BLS by Bush to find every conceivable job (and then some). However, I really doubt that with oil prices rocking, housing stalling badly in Orange County California and Las Vegas, inventories rising, retail profits falling, that Monster Jobs are a sign of any real pickup in CURRENT job supply. Friday's revisions will be what Friday's revisions will be, but that data will reflect whatever lies or truths someone wants us to hear about what happened months ago, not the current job situation which I think is more accurately portrayed by Hudson and Challenger than Monster. Mish