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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (147290)	10/7/2004 4:27:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 281500

A new poll in the Keystone State shows Kerry with a big bounce over Bush... philly.com <<...OH, WHAT a difference a debate makes! Last week, most pundits declared Sen. John Kerry the victor in his face-to-face debate with President Bush. This week, the Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll shows Democrat Kerry pulling ahead in Pennsylvania, with 48 percent of registered voters saying they plan to vote for Kerry, compared to 41 percent for Republican Bush. Last month's Keystone Poll showed Bush leading Kerry 47 percent to 45. The poll also showed U.S. Rep. Congressman Joe Hoeffel, with TV ads expanding his name recognition, making strides in his push to unseat U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter. Hoeffel trails Specter by 14 points compared to a 26-point gap a month ago. In the presidential race, poll director G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College credited the debate with changing voters' minds in this crucial battleground state. Of the 594 Pennsylvania registered voters polled between last Thursday - the day of the first presidential debate - and Monday, three quarters of them said they had watched it. Of those who watched, 6 percent said they had changed their candidate preference as a result. And that shift, according to the poll, fell in Kerry's favor by a factor of three to one. "The debate had an effect on a small number of voters, only 6 percent," Madonna said, "but look how close this race still is. This is a race in which small differences mean a lot." Indeed, the results of the last five Keystone polls read like a hard-fought tennis match, with Bush ahead by a few points one month and Kerry leading the next. Most voters, Madonna said, are fairly solid in their positions, but 10 or 15 percent of the electorate are heavily swayed by events, ads and other factors. Kerry was leading by a point in the February Keystone Poll when he was buoyed by good publicity during the Democratic primaries. Bush was up by 6 points in March when the economy seemed to be coming back. Kerry was about 6 points up in August after his nominating convention, but Bush regained the lead again in September after the Republican convention and TV ads attacking Kerry's military record. Among the other good news for Kerry in the latest poll, Madonna said, is that far more voters seem to be focused on the war in Iraq than at any other point this year. Voters are increasingly drawing a distinction between the war in Iraq and homeland security - two issues that had previously been tied together in voters' minds, Madonna said. He credits Kerry's debate performance with driving the difference home. "Iraq is now much more divided as an issue," Madonna said. "Not only did the president not do a good job on a number of dimensions [during the debate], it was clearly on Iraq that Kerry made his best points." Ultimately, Madonna said, Pennsylvania voters may choose their president based on whether or not they think invading Iraq will make this country safer...>>

To: michael97123 who wrote (147290)	10/7/2004 5:03:01 PM
From: KLP	Respond to of 281500

I think all we can do is the best that we can do....And FWEIW, I think by and large, over the years, that's what we have done. We have thousands of people who try to come to the US, legally and illegally, but I don't see any trying to flee. Of course, it would be nice if some of the folks in Follywood would keep their promises and do just that. It would be good riddance, and 'don't let the door hit them in the bottom on the way out the gate....' <g <--sorta> However, we all know that won't happen. Those folks just want publicity...