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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (75558)	10/7/2004 5:35:42 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Respond to of 793706

Oh, KLP, so that was you I heard? I wondered.

To: KLP who wrote (75558)	10/7/2004 9:53:47 PM
From: Alan Smithee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793706

Scientists seeing a build-up of forces at Mt. St. Helens similar to that leading up to the 1980 eruption. Hopefully, any eruption would not be as damaging this time, since most of the north face of the mountain is gone. Revised St. Helens Forecast Warns Of Larger Eruption October 7, 2004 By Tracy Vedder MT. ST. HELENS - Scientists announced Thursday that they are once again refining their prediction about the future of Mt. St. Helens, and that volcano has entered a new eruptive phase. For two weeks, we've been watching Mt. St. Helens, trying to figure out what it was going to do. But now scientists agree that all the activity is similar to build-ups that we saw prior to Mt. St. Helens' eruption in 1980. But, now, there's one significant difference. Now, the whole north side of the mountain is gone, so while we could see strong eruptions -- perhaps even as explosive as in 1980, the effects would not be as great. A near-consistent steam release Thursday confirms that the volcano is far from asleep. There is still plenty of heat below, causing steam to continually surge from vents in the crater floor. This is the same build-up of events that occurred in the spring and summer of 1980. "1980 produced both dome-building events and ash explosions. We expect probably that both will occur during this period of eruptive activity," said Larry Mastin with the USGS. That means that in the days and weeks ahead, we'll likely see hot, fresh magma with consistency of toothpaste, come burping and oozing out of the floor of the crater, and we will see ash eruptions much larger than what we've seen before. "These events that we've seen recently have been driven by steam," Mastin said. "Once we start seeing ash events that are driven by magmatic gas, they have a lot more heat that can buoyantly convent to higher elevations." How high? Scientists use the Volcanic Explosivity Index to explain. The ash bursts of the past few days have been at 0 to 1 on the scale that ranges from 0 to 8. The 1980 Mt. St. Helens eruption rated a 5. Scientists say we are most likely to see a level 3, but it could be worse. "There's a small, but real chance of eruptions of VEI 4 or 5 -- 5 being the size that occurred on May 18, 1980," Mastin said. That means an ash plume could extend 15 miles into the atmosphere, sending ash to Portland, Seattle and/or Yakima depending on the prevailing winds. It could also trigger lahars, or mud flows that could sweep into Sprit Lake and the Toutle River Valley -- although scientists agree that even if all the glacier ice in the crater melts, the sediment dam miles down stream is big enough to contain it. And what we won't see, even in the worst case scenario, is the blast force that killed so many in 1980. "What we're talking about primarily is a vertical eruption that would send a high plume into the atmosphere," Mastin said. "And in some cases, cause a cone collapse that would produce pyroclasitc flows." Pyroclastic flows occur when an intense eruption sends heavy rock and ash up into the atmosphere, then come racing back down and create what would look like a liquid rockslide fueled by super-heated gas. As for the timing for all of this, scientists do not believe this is an imminent situation, so they're not expecting anything like that in the next few days, however, we could see all of these events occurring in the coming days, weeks, or months. And much like how in its prior eruption in 1980, the activity was elevated for the following six years, we could be looking at years of increased activity this time as well. For More Information: Volcanic Eruption Index -- volcano.und.nodak.edu St. Helens Info -- vulcan.wr.usgs.gov. Live Web Camera Of Mt. St. Helens -- www.fs.fed.us UW Real-Time Seismology Graphs Of Mt. St. Helens -- www.pnsn.org What To Do In Case Of Ash Fall -- vulcan.wr.usgs.gov komotv.com