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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (13144)	10/8/2004 12:46:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

There is NO doubt that some hedonic adjustments are warranted. Quite a few actually. IMO those should ONLY apply to the CPI not the GDP. I can not fathom adjusting GDP for hedonics. It makes no sense. We are growing in actual real $ terms or we are not. Those blowout GDP numbers last January were almost totally hedonic bullshit. Mish

To: Tommaso who wrote (13144)	10/8/2004 1:05:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Remarks by Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. To the Conference on Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years after October 1979, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri October 8, 2004 Panel discussion: Safeguarding Good Policy Practice through Maintaining Flexibility federalreserve.gov

To: Tommaso who wrote (13144)	10/8/2004 1:06:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

$70 predicted by year end last week 45% of analysts were bullish on oil this week 70% of analysts are bullish on oil Just heard this on Bloomberg TV Mish

To: Tommaso who wrote (13144)	10/8/2004 1:10:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke To the Conference on Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years after October 1979, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri October 8, 2004 Panel discussion: What Have We Learned Since October 1979? federalreserve.gov

To: Tommaso who wrote (13144)	10/8/2004 1:24:52 PM
From: jt101	Respond to of 116555

Tommaso, Your example definitely makes sense, but based on my limited knowledge and what I have heard from others, people question the inflation numbers starting from late nineties only. Atleast based on my experience, inflation is definitely in 4-7% range. I used to think we will get stagflation in the coming years, but looking at oil price and treasury yields, I am now totally clueless. I don't mind deflation, where not only wages, but cost of everything (like medicine, education, real estate etc..) comes down, but I am sure it will be my dream forever... Mish : A great thread. Thanks...

To: Tommaso who wrote (13144)	10/8/2004 1:32:08 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

N.A. weekly vehicle production up 1.1% - Ward's By Carla Mozee SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Weekly vehicle production in North America increased 1.1 percent at 353,533 units, Ward's reported Friday. Vehicle production hit 348,691 units last week. As of this week, North American car and truck production is down 1.2 percent from 2003 to 12.7 million. ==================================================================== Keep churning out those SUVs Mish

To: Tommaso who wrote (13144)	10/8/2004 1:35:50 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Politicians fight over jobs report Friday, October 8, 2004 5:16:55 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - Just hours away from the second presidential debate Friday night, politicians from both political parties said the September employment report supported their views on the U.S. economy The report showed that 96,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were created in September, while the unemployment rate remained at a three-year low of 5.4 percent Job growth and the economy are certain to be major topics in Friday night's debate between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry. Republicans said the report showed solid job growth over the past year, while Democrats said hiring in September was tepid at best and scandalously bad over Bush's three-and a half years in office. "Today's employment report shows the steady creation of jobs fueled by the pro-growth policies and strong economic leadership of President Bush," said Treasury Secretary John Snow in a written statement. "Since August of last year, America has added more than 1.9 million workers to the payroll," Snow said. "The unemployment rate of 5.4 percent remains under the average of each of the past three decades." "The verdict is in," Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry said in his written statement. "With 1.6 million private sector jobs lost during his term, President Bush will be the first president in 72 years to face the electorate with an economy that has lost jobs under his watch." "The president does not seem to understand how many middle-class families are being squeezed by falling incomes, and spiralling health care, tuition and energy costs," Kerry continued. Puny growth "There is probably no one more disappointed by today's job figures than President Bush," said economist Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics "The most positive spin you can put on these figures is that the economy is making some progress is creating jobs, and indeed, payroll jobs have been found to be undercounted," Mayland said. "But the reality is that a 96,000 increase on a 131 million base is puny and not satisfactory." "The president has to stress that a lot of the problems with job creation are not under his control," said Irwin Kellner, chief economist for CBS MarketWatch and the Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University, pointing to technology improvements, outsourcing, productivity, business uncertainty, the cost of energy and the high cost of health care Bush has argued for months that the U.S. economy is "strong and getting stronger." He has not proposed any new economic policies in recent months, saying that what the economy needs is the certainty of tax cuts and more deregulation Bush was able to get three tax cuts through Congress, including one that was targeted directly at job creation. Bush's critics in the Democratic Party say the tax cuts were ineffective at creating jobs in addition to unfairly favoring the rich Trickle down didn't work, the Democrats say. But others say the economy has changed since the frothy days of the late 1990s, when the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent. Companies overinvested and overhired, they say "It is about time that we stop comparing job growth to the employment bubble of the late 1990s and start asking the tough question about what really is the trend employment gain in a post-NAFTA, global trading environment," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia fxstreet.com