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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11658)	10/8/2004 3:05:26 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Inventory corrections that result from "just in time inventories (getting juster in time) is a much better correction than a fall off in end user demand. It seems that smart box builder have deferred a channel build until the absolute last moment. To the degree that we get a good Christmas selling season,we could well build up inventories going strong into 2005. Two if and a good 05. If they waited till the last minute and if we get a good Christmas selling season - sounds like they are very doable. I still say that exceptional profitability will be recognized at lower levels of revenue(as a result of past downsizing). These blips will be anticipated,recognised,and then a global recovery will continue to drive bigger numbers. To the degree that we see all players not allow aggressive channel stuffing - we are assured a longer and more profitable recovery/growth cycle. I think these kinds of worries are healthy and certainly not worth losing a position over. In short it is good business and the companies are doing what they should. Bob

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11658)	10/8/2004 3:56:10 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 25522

Citing inventory correction issues in the marketplace, a research firm this week lowered its estimates for first- and second-tier foundries (see Oct. 4 story). The foundry business is expected to pick up in the first or second quarter of 2005 — but then the industry is headed towards an anticipated IC downturn in the second half of next year, executives said. To me it looks like they got it backwards and ANOTHER downturn.... The foundry business is expected to pick up in the first or second quarter of 2005 — but then the industry is headed towards an anticipated IC downturn in the second half of next year, executives said. Tower's topline is $150 million; #2 UMC is $3.66 billion