from sonnypage
Most of you know that my wife and I are realtors. We live and work in the north Atlanta suburbs of Roswell and Alpharetta. Last week I was showing my relocation buyers from Texas homes in a neighborhood I liked. On one, the FMLS listing sheet said "bank owned, special addendums must be attached to all offers". There they were, stacked on the kitchen counter. I remembered this particular home. Sure enough, when I had a chance to check my logs, I had shown this home back in the spring, when it was still owned by the owner and listed with a different firm. Then I also remembered driving by it in the summer and it had a "For Sale By Owner" sign in the yard. So, the sad progression went something like this. Back in the spring, when they must first have realized they were in trouble, they listed with a realtor, probably asking what they owed or needed, which was more than the home was worth. When that did not work, they dropped the realtor to save on the commission, dropped the price, but obviously still no takers. I remembered particularly from the spring that the hardwood floors were badly scratched; they had apparently given dogs free rein of the house. I remembered it particularly because it had once been a beautiful home, but by then looked very run down.By last week, the bank had made the necessary repairs and the price had been reduced to fair market value. I found this to be very depressing; a family, real people, lost their home. My buyers bought a different home for other reasons. We don't usually see that many bank foreclosures in upscale neighborhoods, at least we have not yet. Perhaps that is also why it stood out to me. Perhaps also a sign of things to come?
Then there is this. Two days ago I was driving back to the office down Haynes Bridge road. Through this particular stretch are less expensive, more modest homes. On my right, at a subdivision entrance, I saw three red signs. Around here, "For Sale By Owners" and bank foreclosures both use red signs and there were three, two "FSBOs" and a foreclosure. Then I looked up, down the street straight ahead for a long stretch, and saw red signs, as far as the road was straight, both sides of the road. It was both a little depressing and unsettling. Am I seeing more foreclosures, and more FSBOs, which usually also means distress, than in the past? Or am I just noticing them more now? On the lower end,price wise, I think yes. I am still trying to read the tea leaves along with the rest of you.
Earlier this week, my wife and I ran into a friend named Taylor at a business conference. He is another realtor we had worked with in years past, up until 1999, when we were all still down in the Dunwoody office.We moved our business up to Alpharetta in 2000. We had not seen him in a while and it was good to catch up. But it also brought back memories of back then, 1999. It seems like a million years ago. We were on our way to having our best year ever, which we did, only to turn around and top it in 2000! Those were indeed the glory days. Do you remember? The cold war was over, the tech boom was charging ahead, nothing but blue sky straight ahead for us all. For us, perhaps for you, the retirement accounts kept swelling ever larger. The future looked ever bright. But today, well, things have changed, for most of us at least, certainly for us. You see, if you are self employed, own your own business, as we do, there is good news and bad news. The good news, we can never be fired, we can never "lose"our jobs. But then again, we can always find ourselves "underutilized". Our income in the years since 2000 has leveled off at about 15% below that years', but about what it was in the year or two before. So, was 1999-2000 an anomaly, as far as income?. The "blow off" of the dot.com boom? Since then we work harder, work smarter, utilize new technology, makes no difference. We are in the same boat as most of our fellow Americans, income is down, expenses up. How far can it go? More and more people are falling through the cracks. How do we grow incomes to stay ahead of inflation and to inflate down debt? Perhaps we don't is the answer? I have said, and still say, that residential real estate is key to our economy. If those red signs I talked about start popping up everywhere and with more frequency, this country will be in for a very rough time.
Which leaves me still believing that a falling dollar and higher inflation is coming soon to a country near you. I have been and still am very long the precious metals miners. I wish you all well.
sonnypage
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