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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (19679)	10/8/2004 6:13:05 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Oct 08 2004 16:20 trotsky (Moregold) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved @'one day they will...' i wish i had a nickel for every time i've heard that. i'm not saying it's impossible, but the historical record just doesn't support the idea. note also that a large part of the commercial COMEX short position is probably offset with either physical holdings or other otc-derivative based contracts. it would be nice to know however how big the uncovered, speculative commercial position is. unfortunately, we'll never find out. Date: Fri Oct 08 2004 15:56 trotsky (humble) ID#248269: there's also a 'Puetz crash window' in October. Date: Fri Oct 08 2004 13:08 trotsky (frustrated @ jobs report) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved from the text you posted: "But temporary help services rose a healthy 33,000 for a third straight increase. Though positive, the significance of the gain is uncertain: employers may be adding temporary workers in anticipation of adding permanent workers in the future or they may be hiring temporary workers as a routine part of business." i would suggest a completely different interpretation. the reason why so many temps are hired is that businesses want to be able to satisfy current needs, while retaining the flexibility to very quickly down-size their work force again as soon as the economy weakens further. the hiring of temps isn't necessarily a precursor to 'adding permanent workers' as the spin would have it. i rather see it as an expression of utmost caution on the part of business. when incorporating additional information, such as the lack of corporate credit demand and the fact that net insider selling of stocks is regularly reaching new monthly record highs, one can only conclude that the spin is not credible. Date: Fri Oct 08 2004 11:38 trotsky (P.Yorkie, 8:25) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this was a good post, but i take issue with two points: 1. "America is tearing itself apart because those that own capital are acting in an unsocialist manner towards their fellow Americans by exporting capital ( and jobs ) elsewhere." US entrepreneurs are not 'exporting' capital because THEY are not socialistic enough, but because regulations and taxes are LESS socialistic in China than in the US, which makes for a better return on capital. expectations for the return on capital in the US are at a multi decade low right now ( this can be seen by the fact that in spite of ultra-low interest rates, corporations have begun to hoard cash and pay down debt ) . you said it yourself: "....because in doing so ....the world capitalists are employing capital more efficienctly and so promoting the cause of humanity as a whole." it needs to be noted in this context that A ) this benefits indeed EVERYONE, including the US. the reason is that US consumers have more choices, and enjoy lower prices for goods than they otherwise would. prosperity always has been, and always will be, marked by abundance, not scarcity. no-one can deny the fact that there has never been a more abundant array of consumer goods to choose from, and many of those goods have become so cheap as to be affordable to a large number of people. many of the people officially classified as 'poor' enjoy in fact more luxuries than a king 200 years ago. and B ) one also needs to remember that the supposed 'decline' of US manufacturing is not borne out by the actual output of goods - because that is at an all time high. 2. "However, throwing pearls in front of swine has its own rewards. Al Qaeda is one of them." this seems to imply that Al Quaida is a fruit of the labors of US capitalists abroad. i disagree vehemently - the most powerful symbols of US capitalism, like e.g. the ubiquitous Coca Cola, are what have made US culture so popular all over the world. everybody likes to do business with the Americans, and consumers the world over are voting with their wallets for the products of US capitalism, regardless of nationality or creed. iow, the efforts of US entrepreneurs further the cause of civilization and peace. Al Quaida and similar threats are a fruit of the labors of the STATE - particularly, its foreign policy. it was not entrepreneurs that aided and trained what was to become Al Quaida in the Afghanistan of the 1980's. it was the CIA that did that. no entrepreneur stationed troops in Saudi Arabia, or in any other country for that matter. the government did all that.