Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

Banks (113 stocks)
BKX Amex Banking Index and RKH Regional Bank Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market BKX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Oct 8 99 60 58 82 83 100 0.74
_Oct 7 99 81 68 86 84 100 0.71
_Oct 6 99 93 85 90 88 100 0.63
_Oct 5 99 91 75 88 86 100 0.50
_Oct 4 99 94 78 89 85 99 0.44
_Oct 1 99 94 79 89 88 92 0.34 UP
_Sep 30 98 70 54 83 78 59 0.18
_Sep 29 98 61 50 83 80 -66 0.23
_Sep 28 97 33 33 73 74 -99 0.27
_Sep 27 97 10 15 63 69 -98 0.37

Oil & Gas Drillers, Field Services, and Equipment (55 stocks)
OSX Amex Oil Services Index and OIH Oil Services Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market OSX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Oct 8 124 82 93 96 96 97 5.10
_Oct 7 124 85 95 96 96 98 5.14 DOWN
_Oct 6 124 95 95 96 96 98 5.16 UP
_Oct 5 122 93 95 96 96 97 4.98
_Oct 4 122 95 96 98 96 95 5.03 DOWN
_Oct 1 123 98 98 98 96 95 5.04 UP
_Sep 30 121 87 93 96 96 96 4.81
_Sep 29 120 87 93 96 96 97 4.82 DOWN
_Sep 28 122 98 100 96 96 98 4.87
_Sep 27 120 87 93 91 96 97 4.60

Retailers (222 stocks)
RLX Amex Retailing Index and RTH Retailers Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market RLX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Oct 8 411 45 52 62 48 98 2.32 DOWN
_Oct 7 414 59 63 66 49 97 2.45
_Oct 6 417 76 71 73 50 98 2.45
_Oct 5 414 80 72 72 49 96 2.34
_Oct 4 416 81 74 72 50 94 2.27
_Oct 1 411 75 68 70 49 90 2.08 UP
_Sep 30 408 55 57 63 47 81 2.03 DOWN
_Sep 29 409 55 59 60 47 70 2.05 UP
_Sep 28 405 38 47 57 43 66 2.02
_Sep 27 403 26 43 51 42 73 2.11

Drugs (89 stocks)
DRG Philadelphia Pharma Index and PPH Pharmaceutical Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market DRG 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Oct 8 300 17 20 48 29 -89 -1.99
_Oct 7 302 28 33 56 31 -89 -1.56
_Oct 6 310 54 52 72 36 -88 -1.13
_Oct 5 313 60 56 71 38 -100 -1.00
_Oct 4 313 62 58 72 38 -100 -0.98
_Oct 1 312 56 53 72 36 -70 -0.94
_Sep 30 309 45 45 64 34 -62 -0.82 DOWN
_Sep 29 317 44 45 63 35 -55 -0.49 UP
_Sep 28 316 33 47 58 35 -78 -0.50
_Sep 27 313 22 36 53 32 -80 -0.46

link to September data
Message 20587520

9-month cycle

Schedule: 11-, 22-, and 44-week cycles lows starting from Sep 21, 2001

_ cycle tendencies
_ 11-week 22-week 44-week SPX change high low range
Oct 10, 02 start start start 769 none
Nov 5 green green green 915 +146 924 +155 N.A. N.A.
Dec 2 yellow green green 934 + 19 954 + 39 872 - 43 81
Dec 26 red yellow yellow 890 - 44 934 + 0 880 - 54 54
Jan 21, 03 green yellow yellow 887 - 3 935 + 45 869 - 21 66
Feb 18 yellow red red 851 - 36 890 + 3 806 - 81 84
Mar 12 red red red 804 - 47 852 + 1 789 - 62 63
Apr 7 green green green 880 + 76 905 +101 804 - 0 101
May 2 yellow green green 930 + 50 930 + 50 863 - 17 67
May 28 red yellow green 953 + 23 959 + 29 912 - 18 47
Jun 23 green yellow yellow 982 + 29 1015 + 62 946 - 7 69
Jul 18 yellow red yellow 993 + 11 1015 + 33 962 - 20 53
Aug 6 red red yellow 967 - 26 1001 + 8 961 - 32 40
Sep 2 green green red 1022 + 55 1022 + 55 964 - 3 58
Sep 29 yellow yellow red 1006 - 16 1040 + 18 995 - 27 45
Oct 22 red red red 1030 + 24 1054 + 48 990 - 16 64
Nov 17 green green green 1043 + 13 1064 + 34 1018 - 12 46
Dec 15 yellow green green 1068 + 25 1083 + 40 1031 - 12 52
Jan 7, 04 red yellow green 1126 + 58 1126 + 58 1068 - 0 58
Feb 2 green yellow green 1135 + 9 1155 + 29 1115 - 11 40
Feb 27 yellow red yellow 1145 + 10 1159 + 24 1124 - 11 35
Mar 24 red red yellow 1091 - 54 1163 + 18 1087 - 58 76
Apr 14 green green yellow 1128 + 37 1150 + 59 1091 - 0 59
May 5 yellow green yellow 1121 - 7 1147 + 19 1107 - 21 40
May 25 red yellow red 1113 - 8 1121 + 0 1076 - 45 45
Jun 18 green yellow red 1135 + 22 1142 + 29 1110 - 3 32
Jul 15 yellow red red 1107 - 28 1146 + 11 1106 - 29 40
Aug 13 red red red 1065 - 4 1116 + 9 1061 - 40 49
Sep 9 green green green 1118 + 53 1124 + 59 1065 - 0 59
Oct 5 yellow green green 1134 + 16 1140 + 22 1101 - 17 39
Oct 29 red yellow green 1122 - 12 1142 + 8 1120 - 14 22
Nov 24 green yellow yellow
Dec 21 yellow red yellow
Jan 14, 05 red red yellow

Alternate 10-week cycle

_ cycle tendencies
_ 11-week 22-week 44-week SPX change high low range
Sep 7 green green green 1121 + 56 1124 + 59 1065 - 0 59
Sep 29 yellow green green 1115 - 6 1131 + 10 1101 - 20 30
Oct 22 red yellow green 1122 + 7 1142 + 27 1110 - 5 32
Nov 16 green yellow green
Dec 9 yellow red yellow
Dec 31 red red yellow
22-week cycle

Sep 17-21, 01 base low 944 next high 1173 on Dec 06 (week 11)
Dec 03-07, 01 11 weeks high 1173 next high 1177 on Jan 07 (week 4)
Feb 18-22, 02 22 weeks trough low 1074 next high 1173 on Mar 11 (week 3)
May 06-10, 02 11 weeks low 1049 next high 1106 on May 17 (week 1)
Jul 22-26, 02 22 weeks trough low 775 next high 965 on Aug 22 (week 4)
Oct 07-11, 02 55 weeks trough low 768 next high 954 on Dec 02 (week 7)
Dec 23-27, 02 11 weeks low 873 next high 935 on Jan 13 (week 2)
Mar 10-14, 03 22 weeks trough low 789 next high 965 on May 30 (week 11)
May 19-23, 03 10 weeks high 944 next high 1015 on Jul 14 (week 7)
Aug 4- 8, 03 21 weeks trough flat 960 next high 1048 on Oct 21 (week 11)
Oct 20-24, 03 11 weeks high 1048 next high 1132 on Jan 9 (week 11)
Jan 5- 9, 04 22 weeks high 1132 next high 1163 on Mar 5 (week 8)
Mar 22-26, 04 54 weeks trough low 1087 next high 1150 on Apr 5 (week 2)
May 24-28, 04 9 weeks flat 1090 next high 1146 on Jun 25 (week 4)
Aug 9-13, 04 20 weeks trough low 1061 next high 1130 on Sep 17 (week 5)
Oct 25-29, 04 11 weeks
Jan 10-14, 05 22 weeks trough
Mar 28-01, 05 53 weeks trough

26-week Dow cycle troughs
Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379
Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks
Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks
Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks
Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks
Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks
Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks
Feb 8, 02 Dow 9580 length 20 weeks
Oct 10, 02 Dow 7197 length 35 weeks
Mar 12, 03 Dow 7416 length 22 weeks
Aug 6, 03 Dow 8997 length 22 weeks
Mar 24, 04 Dow 10007 length 32 weeks
Aug 13, 04 Dow 9784 length 20 weeks
sample size 12 Spring sample 7 Fall sample 5
total 305 weeks total 152 weeks total 153 weeks
average 25 weeks average 22 weeks average 31 weeks
st dev 2 weeks st dev 1 weeks st dev 2 weeks

next approximate Dow trough
Dec 31, 04 20 weeks minimum length in samples
Feb 4, 05 25 weeks average length in samples
Mar 18, 05 31 weeks average length in Fall samples

source of dates

timeanddate.com

TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Monday Oct 11, 2004
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.38 1.26 1.29 1.34 1.14 1.07
OTC 1.11 1.03 1.20 1.49 1.02 1.19
S&P 500 0.94 0.98 1.28 1.41 1.02 1.06
S&P 100 0.98 1.05 1.36 1.57 1.00 1.03
NASDAQ 100 1.11 1.07 1.33 1.57 1.07 1.17
NYSE Advance/Decline ratio
stockcharts.com.
Nasdaq Advance/Decline ratio
stockcharts.com.
TRIN overbought <= 0.75 oversold >= 1.50
Adv/Dec ratio overbought >= 1.25 oversold <= 0.75
Up/Dn vol ratio overbought >= 1.25 oversold <= 0.75
Note: the above TRINs use an exponential average of daily TRIN values.
below, I've provided the normal TRINs that use a regular moving avg.
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN
DJIA/NYSE 1.38 1.08
OTC 1.01 0.91
S&P 500 0.90 1.01
S&P 100 0.95 1.04
NASDAQ 100 0.99 0.98
TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Tuesday Mar 11, 2003
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 2.42 2.06 0.87 0.72 0.94 0.84
OTC 1.46 1.47 0.79 0.63 0.88 0.87
S&P 500 1.08 1.10 0.67 0.65 0.83 0.86
S&P 100 1.34 1.27 0.66 0.65 0.84 0.89
NASDAQ 100 1.24 1.33 0.70 0.59 0.92 0.93
TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Wednesday Oct 9, 2002
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.20 1.34 0.67 0.55 0.70 0.55
OTC 1.06 1.31 0.65 0.55 0.68 0.60
S&P 500 0.96 1.08 0.58 0.54 0.58 0.56
S&P 100 1.03 1.16 0.59 0.52 0.60 0.53
NASDAQ 100 1.18 1.23 0.58 0.52 0.61 0.58
TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Tuesday Jul 23, 2002
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D 55d A/D 55d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.30 1.35 0.47 0.41 0.65 0.51 0.79 0.63
OTC 1.07 1.24 0.60 0.71 0.72 0.76 0.78 0.75
S&P 500 1.05 0.92 0.36 0.49 0.51 0.57 0.67 0.66
TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Friday Sep 21, 2001
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D 55d A/D 55d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.00 1.14 0.45 0.38 0.66 0.50 0.89 0.73
OTC 1.36 1.39 0.48 0.37 0.64 0.49 0.79 0.69
S&P 500 0.96 1.04 0.40 0.35 0.58 0.47 0.79 0.69