Bush Fails to Stem Kerry Momentum in Second Debate, Polls Show
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush failed to gain a victory in the second presidential debate to stem the momentum built by John Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, since their first match-up last week.
Two polls gave Kerry an edge in the 90-minute contest at Washington University in St. Louis. An ABC News survey of registered voters showed 45 percent considered Kerry the winner and 41 percent picked Bush. In a CNN poll, 47 percent said Kerry won and 45 percent favored Bush. Both are within the margin of error.
Bush, 58, took aim at Kerry's 20-year record in the U.S. Senate, saying he voted to slash intelligence spending. Bush told the audience of undecided voters, that Kerry, 60, would raise their taxes to fund his health care proposal and other spending plans. Kerry said Bush turned his campaign into ``a weapon of mass deception.'' Bush doesn't have a plan to ``win the peace'' in Iraq, Kerry said.
``I think Kerry got the better of the president,'' said Alexander Lamis, a professor of political science at Case Western Reserve in Cleveland. Bush ``did not detract from whatever momentum Senator Kerry is building up.''
Bush futures traded on the Dublin Intrade Internet market fell during the debate, trading as low as 53.5 after it concluded, the lowest since Aug. 27 and the biggest one-day fall since they began trading in January 2003. Before the debate, the futures were trading at 59.8. By this morning, Bush futures were trading at 55 and Kerry futures were at 44.
The futures prices represent the odds bettors give Bush or Kerry for winning the election.
National Tie
Ten national polls taken this week showed Kerry pulling into a statistical tie after trailing Bush by as much as 13 percentage points before the first debate on Sept. 30.
Bush and Kerry each have the support of 45 percent of 886 likely voters surveyed Oct. 6-7 by Time magazine, the most recent of the polls. Independent candidate Ralph Nader won the backing of 3 percent of respondents. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. In a Time poll before the first presidential debate, Bush led by 6 points.
The first half of last night's event was devoted to foreign policy, and Iraq was the main topic, even when the questions weren't directly about the conflict.
`Mass Deception'
For the first question, Kerry was asked what his response is to people who think he is ``too wishy-washy,'' a charge Bush makes in speeches and campaign ads.
``The president didn't find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, so he's really turned his campaign into a weapon of mass deception,'' Kerry said. ``And the result is that you've been bombarded with advertisements suggesting that I've changed a position on this or that or the other.''
Bush returned the criticism.
``I can see why people think that he changes position quite often, because he does,'' Bush said. ``I don't see how you can lead this country in a time of war or a time of uncertainty if you change your position because of politics.''
Defending his handling of the planning for the war, Bush said he asked U.S. generals the day before sending troops, ``Do we have the right plan with the right troop level?''
The generals told him they did, Bush said.
Responses on War
``You rely on good military people to execute the military component of the strategy, but winning the peace is larger than just the military component,'' Kerry said. ``The military's job is to win the war. A president's job is to win the peace.''
At one point, Bush stopped moderator Charles Gibson of ABC News and walked forward on the stage to respond to Kerry's remarks that Bush had rushed to war in Iraq without building a broad enough alliance. Kerry pressed the issue, saying he wouldn't ``go alone like this president did.''
``Tell Tony Blair we're going it alone,'' Bush said. ``Tell Silvio Berlusconi we're going it alone. Tell Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland we're going it alone.''
Kerry said eight countries have left the coalition, and that if Missouri were a country it would be the third-largest member of the coalition behind the U.S. and Great Britain.
Some analysts said all Bush needed to do in this debate is improve from his Sept. 30 performance, which polls showed Kerry won.
`Restore Confidence'
Bush ``did what he needed to do to restore confidence to Republicans who were beginning to panic,'' said James Lucier, a political analyst at Prudential Equity Group Inc. in Washington. ``Kerry came in with high expectations, Bush came in with low.''
``I think the president looked angry from the get-go,'' said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster with the Washington firm Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates.
Evans Witt, chief executive officer of the polling firm Princeton Survey Research International said the debate produced no clear winner.
``It was one of those debates where you're going to see what you want in it,'' Witt said. ``If you are undecided I don't think the debate pushed you one way or the other.''
Thomas Foley, a Democrat who is a former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, called the debate ``balanced.''
``The president was much more animated and effective tonight than in the first debate,'' Foley said. ``Senator Kerry maintained the same very high level of clarity and performance.''
Drugs Prices
Bush and Kerry took questions on their plans to bring consumer prices down for pharmaceutical drugs and improve the availability of health care.
``I haven't yet'' made a decision on whether to import drugs from Canada, Bush said. ``I just want to make sure they're safe,'' he said. ``I want to make sure it cures you and doesn't kill you.''
Last month, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson said the safety of drug imports from Canada and other countries was ``a huge problem.''
Kerry said that Bush said four years ago he thought imports from Canada made sense. ``Ladies and gentlemen, the president just didn't level with you right now, again,'' Kerry said. He said he would fight to allow drug reimportation.
Bush supported a drug benefit for seniors under Medicare legislation passed by Congress. Kerry said the Republican-backed bill helps drug companies more than patients.
Health Care
Kerry said health insurance premiums and the number of uninsured increased under Bush's presidency. Kerry plans to offer to pay for companies' health care bills for employees whose hospital bills exceed $50,000. Bush said Kerry didn't have the money to pay for his program.
``He's going to tax everybody here to fund his programs,'' Bush said. ``That's what liberals do. They create government- sponsored health care,'' Bush said.
During one exchange, Bush said Kerry's plan to cancel tax cuts for families earning more than $200,000 a year would force 900,000 small businesses to pay more to the Internal Revenue Service.
Kerry said that isn't true because Bush was counting partnerships and businesses that include holding companies rather than active companies. As an example, he said the president is counted as a small business owner under his own definition because he owned an interest in a timber company.
``I own a timber company?'' the president responded, turning to the audience. ``That's news to me. Want some wood?''
Bush did report income from a timber company, according to copies of his tax returns on a Web site operated by Tax Analysts, an Arlington, Virginia, publisher of tax information. Bush earned $425,000 in income from partnerships in 2003, more than his presidential salary of $400,000.
The debate may have appealed mainly to the core Republican and Democratic supporters of both candidates, said former U.S. Senator Donald Riegle of Michigan. Riegle, 66, who started his political career as a Republican and ended as a Democrat, is chairman of government relations at Apco Worldwide, a Washington- based consulting firm.
``I don't know if the debates at this point are going to make that much difference,'' Riegle said. ``The realities the country is facing with Iraq and domestically loom much larger.'' |
