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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (13196)10/10/2004 10:19:45 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Russ, I spoke with Dave Meger at Alaron about this.
According to him there are "lots" (a term not defined) of "unapproved inventories of copper. In other words therer is copper in storage but not at approved sites and therefore not in the official inventory figgures.

In other words if the LME figures go to zero there will still be copper from somewhere else. More than likely other things will happen, like some of this storage will be approved or moved to official sites, or people will just buy it (and still get it) from these other sites.

Unfortunately there is no way to know exactly how much other copper is out (dave thinks it is considerable but did not define that in tons for me) there and therefore no way to know if we are as close to running out as you seem to think. That said, there is no doubt that copper supply is extremely tight and as long as it remains so prices will keep rising.

Mish



To: russwinter who wrote (13196)10/12/2004 5:38:40 PM
From: Roads End  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Like you I have been trying to figure what happens in the train wreck. I'm not following your logic If inventories are gone that means demand must equal supply, and there will be no more slack. There may not be slack but zero supply isn't going to equal demand at that point.

Away from the physical, it seems that the real demand pressure would focus on the producer's enterprise.


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