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Politics : Proof that John Kerry is Unfit for Command -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (17261)	10/9/2004 5:21:25 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Respond to of 27181

United States Senate October 9, 2004 Senate Seats at Risk Republicans 3 Democrats 5 RasmussenReports.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Likely Pick-Ups Republicans 1 Democrats 1 RasmussenReports.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- October 9, 2004--Control of the United States Senate will be decided in eight states this November--Alaska, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and South Dakota. South Dakota and Alaska are the only states in which an incumbent Senator is in serious danger of losing. It appears fairly certain that Democrats will pick up a Republican seat in Illinois and Republicans will return the favor in Georgia. To avoid losing ground, Democrats will have to win five of the eight contested races. To pick up a seat, they will have to win six of eight. As those numbers suggest, the Democrats will need everything to break their way if they are to regain control of the Senate this year. In those eight states, our latest polling shows that Republicans have a modest lead in South Carolina, six of the states are true Toss-ups, and one (Louisiana) has a unique system that makes the race a Toss-Up. Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is in trouble because of the way she got the job. Her father was elected Governor after serving in the Senate for decades. As Governor, he got to appoint his own replacement and named his daughter. Even worse, he did this after pretending to consider others. Democratic challenger and former Governor Tony Knowles holds a statistically insignificant lead in our latest poll. The question is whether this will be enough in a state that will produce a landslide for President Bush. Colorado This is a Senate seat the Republicans counted on winning when the year began. Incumbent Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell would have easily been re-elected, but stepped aside for health reasons. The Democrats have nominated a popular Attorney General Ken Salazar and the Republicans countered with one of the most famous business leaders in the nation--Pete Coors. Our polls have found the two candidates within the margin of error. Florida Democrat Betty Castor has a four-point edge in our latest survey, but Republican Mel Martinez is certainly not out of the race. This seat has been a Toss-Up ever since the Democratic incumbent Bob Graham announced he was not going to seek re-election. Louisiana Louisiana has one Republican and three Democrats in the race. There is no doubt that Republican David Vitter will emerge with the most votes on Election Day. The question is whether or not he will win more than 50% of the vote. If he does, he'll be a Senator. If not, he'll have to face the leading Democrat in a run-off. North Carolina Over the summer, Democrat Erskine Bowles had a double-digit lead over Republican Congressman Richard Burr. That lead has now evaporated and our latest poll shows Burr ahead, 47% to 45%. Oklahoma It is amazing that Oklahoma is even competitive. President Bush will win an overwhelming victory in the state, perhaps by 30 percentage points. Former Republican Congressman Tom Coburn is running against a current Democratic Congressman Brad Carson. Our latest poll shows Carson with a miniscule lead, but Coburn has gained ground in recent weeks. For Coburn, the challenge is to convince at least 70% or more of Bush voters to vote for a Republican Senator as well. If control of the Senate is at risk, that may be a powerful argument in one of the Reddest of the Red States. South Carolina South Carolina is leaning towards Republican Jim DeMint, but the race is much closer than expected. Our latest poll finds Democrat Inez Tenenbaum within six points of DeMint. The reason? Tenenbaum has hit DeMint hard on his support for a national sales tax to replace the income tax. South Dakota This is the heavyweight match of the year. South Dakota is a heavily Republican state, but Daschle has a long track record of electoral success and the benefits of incumbency. Thune lost a very close election, just a few hundred votes statewide, two years ago to Senator Tim Johnson. Both political parties have a plausible story line as to why they should win this Senate election in 2004. Democrats want to believe that Daschle is a stronger candidate than Johnson was and that should make a difference. Republicans want to believe that Johnson won two years ago partly because voters wanted to keep their state's Senator as the Majority Leader in Washington. Now that Republicans have control of the Senate, Daschle's clout is not what it was in 2002. We currently show challenger John Thune up by four points over Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. But, it is truly too close to call.