Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (13242)	10/11/2004 10:32:33 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116555

The big drop from early summer in yoy disposable personal income (page 2) says it all, especially coupled with the spikes in energy and other costs, it's a consumer killer. Still not so sure his line of retreat has been cut off however, as there are so many "creative" ways to allow him to borrow money. Maybe when the Asians begin the process of withdrawing from vendor financing this weekend, a giant sucking sound (Reflux) will crank up.

To: mishedlo who wrote (13242)	10/11/2004 11:07:18 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 116555

I don't understand why so many analysts think Q3 GDP will be above 4%. What are they looking at? Of course, at this point in the quarter, they all thought Q2 would be above 4% too. The "soft patch" in the 2nd quarter started in June, so it only impacted the quarter for one month. Since then the macro numbers have not improved; overall consumers sales were slack, back to school sales were disappointing, RE has started to slow, GM / FORD have announced cutbacks, and several high tech companies (like INTC) have warned. I don't see 4.4% GDP growth. From a jobs perspective (admittedly a somewhat lagging indicator) there were 628K jobs created in Q2 and only 309K in Q3. There are many factors in GDP, and that is why the analysts can be surprised, but my "gut" didn't see a 4.4% growth quarter. But I do agree with that analyst that the economy is slowing right now.