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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (147659)	10/12/2004 9:06:59 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

A 4 fold increase in the price of gas from $2 to $8 would certainly cripple the competive advantage of cheap labor from China. Maybe the end to global imperialism will take place because of the full realization that consumer goods cannot be made in foreign sweatshops and shipped to the US at 10 times the cost. The demand push for goods and serivces is under tight surveillance. The underlying thought that increases in oil prices are advantageous to the US in global markets is very interesting. Though a 4 fold increase in gas translating to a 10 fold increase in the full production cost overseas is a bit of hyperbole. But I'll accept your claim as "notional". You may recall that gasoline prices hit a high on May 26,2004. US trade deficit swells in June [2004] The US trade deficit has unexpectedly swollen by 19% to a record $55.8bn (£30.4bn) in June. The country suffered the biggest drop in exports in nearly three years, just as imports hit record levels. Wall Street economists had expected the gap to widen, but had predicted a gap of just $47bn. Economists said the growing deficit was likely to force the government to revise downwards its forecast of 3% economic growth in the second quarter. news.bbc.co.uk In July...... U.S. trade deficit falls to $50.15 billion Exports rose in July as oil prices declined The Associated Press Updated: 9:08 a.m. ET Sept. 10, 2004 WASHINGTON - The U.S. trade deficit fell to $50.15 billion in July as American exports of cars, airplanes and computers rose while imports declined for the first time in nearly a year, reflecting a drop in the country's foreign oil bill. The politically sensitive deficit with China hit an all-time high. msnbc.msn.com In Aug... U.S. Trade Deficit Declines in August (Falling oil prices helped narrow deficit) By Merle D. Kellerhals, Jr. Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in August to a seasonally adjusted $29,441 million largely because of lower energy prices. hongkong.usconsulate.gov Would you like to elaborate on why you think that higher oil prices are favorable to the US in the global markets.? jttmab

To: Keith Feral who wrote (147659)	10/12/2004 1:03:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

A 4 fold increase in the price of gas from $2 to $8 would certainly cripple the competive advantage of cheap labor from China. Maybe the end to global imperialism will take place because of the full realization that consumer goods cannot be made in foreign sweatshops and shipped to the US at 10 times the cost. The demand push for goods and serivces is under tight surveillance. A four fold increase would tip western economies into a massive recession, most likely, as consumer support for the economy would plummet. While energy is a larger part of Asia's cost base than ours (since their labour is so low), their labour will remain low. Everyone will suffer but proportionately, western economies will suffer far worse.

To: Keith Feral who wrote (147659)	10/12/2004 2:34:10 PM
From: Don Hurst	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Amazing, oil cos are better bets then JDSU and SUNW in an $8 a gallon gas world. Reading your posts remind one of Peter Sellers in "Being There". "The demand push for goods and serivces is under tight surveillance"..... What else can you tell us, Chauncey?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (147659)	10/12/2004 8:44:11 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 281500

Maybe the end to global imperialism will take place because of the full realization that consumer goods cannot be made in foreign sweatshops and shipped to the US at 10 times the cost. In many cases if you try to ship them at 10 times the cost you simply price yourself out of the market. Even at a much lower profit it would not be imperialism of the poorer countries but rather trade that benefits both sides. At 10x cost it would normally be the poorer countries ripping off the richer ones, but that would be unsustainable because other poor countries would start producing at less than that 10x cost or the rich countries would find ways to highly automate the process. The costs of DVD players has gone from over $1000 to perhaps under $50 because of improved methods and because of low cost manufacturing in places like China, but it doesn't cost $5 or less to make the DVD player. (and $50 might be the retail cost, the Chinese company sells it for even less so to sell it for 10X costs they might have to make them for less than $2 a piece which they can't do). Tim