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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (19833)	10/12/2004 11:33:43 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Although a short term trade would have be nice, this is a long time arbitrage play in my book. Just picture it like an asset in a warehouse. Farmers can't afford to even plant in marginal growing areas with today's fertilizer and energy prices. This will eventually be reflected out in the Mays for corn and soybeans. Next year's crop is setting up for huge shortfalls, as corn will not be heavily planted (unprofitable) at $2.00, and soybeans under $5.00. The South Americans will back away too. If you are a Brazilian farmer with marginal cerrado land to plant, it's better just to use another year add more soil Ph and lower aluminum saturation, rather than plant. agbrazil.com If I had true pioneering spirit, I might get on a plane to Brazil, to see if land prices come off hard on this. It's typically priced in soybean bushels.